Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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007 FXUS61 KBGM 251841 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered rain showers are expected today, with rain chances increasing tonight as a cold front approaches the area. Rain will come to an end from west to east on Thursday. High pressure and drier weather returns Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1000 AM Update: The forecast remains largely on track and only made some minor adjustments to PoPs and sky cover. Previous discussion remains valid. 330 AM Update... Surface analysis places a warm front across far western PA this morning. This front will slowly push east and northeast today, fighting against a ridge of high pressure over New England. Meanwhile aloft, a deep trough has dug out over the Midwest, with a closed mid-level low developing over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture-rich southwesterly flow extends ahead of the trough across the Appalachians into PA and NY, with several embedded shortwave troughs. Weak disturbances will continue to ripple through the area today and tonight, bringing periods of enhanced rain shower coverage to the area, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms. Showers look to remain spotty through the early morning hours with a lack of forcing, but will increase across NEPA later this morning, and in Central NY this afternoon and evening. The cutoff low will wander towards the Missouri Bootheel tonight, while the northern stream trough splits and progresses north of the Great Lakes. This trough will move across southern Quebec tonight into Thursday, dragging a weak cold front along with it. Shower chances will increase as the front moves through late tonight into Thursday. Drier air looks to filter into western areas of the CWA Thursday afternoon, but the front may slow down a bit as it approaches the coast, allowing shower chances to linger across the Catskills and NEPA into Thursday evening. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible across the Catskills and Poconos should the front stall down enough, as enhanced mid-level flow will lead to higher bulk shear values. Total rainfall through the period is not expected to be excessive. Temperatures today will be a couple degrees below normal, and returning to near normal on Thursday across the western half of the area, as precip pushes east. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM Update... High pressure drop south out of Canada on Friday, leading to mostly dry conditions. However, models have been trying to sneak some moisture into NE PA Friday evening through Saturday morning. The broad upper low near the mid- Mississippi River valley absorbs the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a weak shortwave rotating around this low could come far enough north to produce some spotty showers, but PoPs are generally under 30% through Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday and Saturday nights are again mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 PM Update... Sunday into Tuesday will be dominated by large ridge of high pressure. This high pressure system should prevent the aforementioned upper low from coming any further north and it exit the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night. The next chance for any rainfall will come towards the end of the forecast period as a cold front may drop far enough southward to push across Central NY. However, at this time confidence is too low on the timing and position of this front, so have kept PoPs below 50% at this time. If this front does push through the region, expect cool conditions mid week onward with the potential for frost Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds across much of the area continues to bring MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings this afternoon. As showers move in from the south, these low ceilings will remain along with some lowering visbys as well in any steadier rain. Isolated thunder is possible, but probabilities are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Overnight ceilings will drop back to Fuel Alternate to IFR with showers continuing. A slow improvement is expected from west to east late Thursday morning/early Thursday afternoon as showers depart the area to the east. .Outlook... Thursday afternoon...Some lingering MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings early, then gradually becoming VFR from west to east late. Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR, but valley fog is possible at KELM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/MPH SHORT TERM...DK/MPK LONG TERM...DK/MPK AVIATION...BJG