324
FXUS61 KBGM 270810
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
410 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in over the area will lead to dry
conditions for most today before a chance of showers returns to
the Twin Tiers southward tonight. While the area of high
pressure is expected to suppress most of the moisture to the
south this weekend, a few showers and sprinkles are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
410 AM Update...

High pressure building in from the northwest out of Canada will
lead to largely dry conditions today. Although it is expected
to be dry much of the time, sunshine will be limited over NE PA
and it will be dimmed by high clouds over much of CNY. There is
some moisture that will start to surge northward late in the day
that can lead to an isolated shower over portions of NE PA,
mainly Luzerne County. Highs today will be running above
average in the low in the mid 70s.

A lobe of energy rotating northward along the edge of a broad
upper low centered over the mid Mississippi river will help push
that influx in moisture farther north tonight and increase
chances for spotty showers, mainly from the Twin Tiers
southward. Lows for much of the area tonight will be in the mid
50s to low 60s.

Helene will be absorbed by this upper low, and the bulk of the
moisture with this system will remain to our south. However, the
surface high in control over the region today looks to shift
north and east Saturday allowing the upper low to expand
northeast toward our area with a band of moisture. As a result,
skies are expected to be mostly cloudy Saturday, and some spotty
showers and sprinkles can be seen, with the main focus again
being from the Twin Tiers south. Highs Saturday range from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update

Helene will be absorbed by an upper low over the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. This system will slowly drift eastward toward the
Mid Atlantic Coast through the period. Although the bulk of the
moisture associated with this upper low will remain well south
of our region, there is a chance for some light rain showers
across NE PA and perhaps pushing as far north as the NY
Southern Tier. A remnant band of mid level (700mb) moisture
remains in place over the region through the day on Saturday.
There will not be much lift, or moisture above the 700mb
level...therefore the bulk of the area can just expect mostly
cloudy skies with a few sprinkles.

Our area will remain on the northern fringe of the slow moving
upper level low through Sunday. This will keep skies mostly
cloudy with a chance for showers from the Twin Tiers southward
into NE PA. Our area will remain split between high pressure
over southern New England and the Ohio Valley low pressure
system for Sunday night. This setup looks to keep the majority
of the forecast area dry, under mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
3 PM Update

High pressure will be over the region on Monday with a dry start
to the work week. Due to the complexity of the pattern next
week, there remains a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for
this period. There is significant timing issues with arrival of
next upper trough digging in from Canada. Some guidance shows
this feature pushing into the region Monday night into Tuesday,
while other models hold it off until Wednesday. Stayed with NBM
solution for now, which due to the uncertainty in timing spreads
PoP out with chances for rain Monday into Thursday. However, it
will be more likely that this upper trough and associated
surface cold front will push through the region within a 24 hour
period and it is unlikely there will be rain showers in the
region through the entire forecast period. The forecast will be
more honed in during the coming days as models start to come
into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Varying conditions are in place early this morning as a weak
cold front departs the area and high pressure builds in along
with drier air. Lower ceilings are still possible for AVP the
next several hours with the front nearby. Farther north areas of
low clouds and fog will be possible despite a mid and high
cloud deck being present due to the increase in moisture from
Thursday`s rain and light winds. RME has fallen to below airport
mins where skies are clearest, and it is expected to remain
there through the early morning. Confidence is not as high at
the remaining CNY terminals on how low visibilities and
ceilings will drop, especially at ELM, ITH and BGM. While it`s
unusual for fog at SYR, visibilities have been gradually
dropping there and guidance continues to support this trend, so
kept it in the forecast.

VFR conditions are expected to return at all terminals between
12-14Z as high pressure promotes dry conditions. Clouds and
moisture will increase from the south tonight and that can lead
to some restrictions later in the TAF, especially for AVP and
ELM.

.Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR north; some restrictions possible
south as clouds increase with shower chances, especially for
AVP.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, but occasional rain
showers may bring brief restrictions, mainly at KAVP.

Tuesday...Scattered rain showers may bring occasional
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MJM
LONG TERM...MPK/MJM
AVIATION...DK