Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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924 FXUS61 KBGM 190508 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 108 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1035 PM Update.. Forecast remains on track with no significant changes needed for this update. Skies are partly cloudy, with some clearing breaks noted on the latest GOES East Microphysics nighttime imagery...expect patchy fog to develop within these clearings as temperatures continue to drop into the 50s overnight. 645 PM Update... Made minor adjustments to increase dew points based on the latest observations. Sky cover was also adjusted based on the latest satellite imagery, ranging from partly to mostly cloudy out there. A few isolated light showers are possible across the Poconos of NE PA over the next hour or two, then is should remain dry areawide overnight. Kept the valley fog in the forecast for late tonight into early Thursday morning; but we will need to see the clouds clear before this can form effectively. Otherwise, after some morning clouds/fog Thursday looks to becoming mostly sunny. Bumped temperatures up a degree or two for Thursday based on the latest guidance, which brings it into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations; perhaps touching the mid-80s for the urbanized valley areas. 213 PM update... The quiet weather continues this evening through at least Thursday night as a ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec south into the central and eastern Great Lakes remains the dominant feature through the region. An elongated area of low pressure extending from just off the NJ coast southwest into NC/SC remains the primary mechanism for scattered rain showers and a few weak thunderstorms over parts of PA and even a few very light rain showers into the central southern tier of NY this afternoon. So, the northern edge of the Allegheny Plateau and parts of the Poconos cannot be ruled out for a brief light rain shower through this evening. However most of the region should remain under mostly cloudy skies and altogether dry. Afternoon high temperatures today will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s where cloud cover remains thick...and into the mid to upper 70s where more sun will be seen to the north/nw. Some clearing will occur later today and tonight as the low pressure off the coast shifts eastward and high pressure/dry air move in from the west/nw. The clearing tonight will lead to efficient cooling and temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s...possibly some upper 40s again in the Catskills. The cool air mass and clear skies with light winds will also lead to more valley fog formation later tonight and into Thur morning. Fog will lift and mix out by 8-9 AM and leave partly sunny to partly cloudy skies with mainly high thin clouds streaming NE to SW across the region on the back side of the departing system off the coast. There is expected to be less cloud cover on Thursday and the high pressure will be building in as well, which will lead to slightly warmer afternoon highs...into the upper 70s and lower 80s. More clearing and overnight lows in the 50s Thursday night along with areas of valley fog again. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 145 PM Update... Warm and mainly dry pattern continues, though spotty showers could occur at times east of Interstate 81. Friday through Saturday, light cyclonic flow around the periphery of the disorganized yet stacked wobbling coastal low may still attempt to get spotty showers against the Poconos- Catskills and perhaps as far west as I-81 but mostly east. More cloud cover, and somewhat cooler temperatures, will also be in these same areas. Most of the time and area, dry conditions will continue with temperatures still slightly above normal. Friday in particular will still be on the warm side, with highs of upper 70s-lower 80s along and west of I-81, and even along the NY Thruway. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 145 PM Update... High pressure will initially be in the control, though with time chances of showers will enter the picture. Surface high pressure will hold on for awhile, but aloft there are model disagreements for whether and when waves will crash through the ridge. If nothing else, this will hold temperatures down to near normal, and increase cloud cover. Some model runs even yield rain as early as Monday, though midweek will be the more probable time for rain chances to start climbing. Overall not seeing any high impact weather at this time. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expecting VFR conditions to persist through the period with high pressure in control. Valley fog at ELM with VLIFR conditions through this morning. After the valley fog dissipates it will be VFR with just some scattered mid/high level clouds around, but generally mostly sunny conditions are expected. .Outlook... Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with valley fog possible at ELM during the early morning hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...KL/MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MPK