267
FXUS61 KBGM 071837
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
237 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will affect the region this afternoon.
Quieter weather will prevail on Saturday, with most areas
avoiding showers. However, rain will return late Saturday night
into Sunday, lingering into Monday afternoon. Drier conditions
are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
237 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the area this
afternoon. The stronger storms which produced some small hail
and wind gusts of around 35 to 45 mph have mostly weakened,
though a few gusts in this range will be possible over Otsego
and Delaware Counties in the next hour or so.

Otherwise, expect scattered showers, with just isolated thunder,
to persist, with a diurnal downtrend this evening. A fairly
right pressure gradient will result in steady west winds this
evening, which will limit or prevent valley fog formation.

Saturday is shaping up to not be so bad. The upper trough will
be lifting out, with even a hint of mid-level ridging developing
late in the afternoon. So a few showers may affect north-central
NY early in the day, with just an isolated shower or two
possible through the early afternoon, but for most, it`ll be a
dry day, with temperature recovering into the 70s.

A fairly strong shortwave trough will push into the area from
the west late Saturday night (after midnight) into Sunday
morning, with widespread showers moving through the area. QPF
amounts look to be fairly light, in the 0.20 to 0.40 inch
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update:

A shortwave will approach the area from the west Saturday night,
which will bring another round of showers the second half of the
night, especially west of I-81 in Central NY. This will be
after a mainly dry evening in between systems. Skies will be
partly cloudy to start, before clouds increase with this
approaching shortwave. Low temperatures are expected to mainly be
in the 50s.

This shortwave quickly moves through the area on Sunday, which
will bring showers to the area, especially in the morning. By
the afternoon, cyclonic flow will bring additional scattered
showers, mainly in Central NY. Chances for showers decrease
southward with just slight chance/low-end chance afternoon PoPs
for the Twin Tiers into the rest of Northeast PA. Also cannot
rule out a rumble of thunder in the afternoon, but limited
instability will keep this chance on the low side. Otherwise, it
will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Cyclonic flow will continue Sunday night, but with the loss of
daytime heating, chances for showers will be diminishing. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Another shortwave trough digging into the region will bring
another chance for scattered showers on Monday. This will also
bring cool conditions, with highs only in the lower 60s to near
70. Showers taper off Monday night with the loss of daytime
heating and the shortwave moving east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update:

With the trough located just east of our area on Tuesday, there
still could be some isolated showers around, but the majority
of the area will likely be dry with partly to mostly sunny
skies. Temperatures on Tuesday likely return closer to normal
with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Forecast uncertainty then increases for Wednesday/Thursday with
significant differences in the model guidance. For example, the
GFS develops a rather strong area of low pressure for this time
of the year and even a secondary coastal low. Should this
scenario pan out, a widespread steady rainfall would be
possible. However, this solution is currently an outlier with
most other solutions indicating zonal flow, or even weak
ridging and mainly dry conditions. Due to this high degree of
uncertainty this far out, PoPs are no higher than low-end
chance right now.

Temperatures look to be on a warming trend for
Wednesday/Thursday, although this could change if the wetter
solution pans out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected across all terminals through the morning
hours as fog at ELM should lift shortly after 8am. Another round
of afternoon rain showers will occur across the region. Guidance
is suggesting the best chance for thunderstorms will be at the
onset of showers in the late morning/early afternoon at
ITH/SYR/RME. MVFR conditions could occur in these storms, with
VSBY having the best chance of being impacted. Once the initial
storms pass, instability decreases and showers remain. BGM does
not have as high of a chance for TSRA so it was left out of the
TAFs but showers could bring MVFR conditions. AVP should see
some showers but confidence to put showers at the terminal was
too low so VCSH was used here.

Showers dissipate across the region by early evening except for
RME/SYR where late effect showers will continue over the area
through the overnight hours with MVFR ceilings. ITH could also
see some MVFR ceilings overnight as lake clouds reach the area.


Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPH