272
FXUS61 KBGM 271757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the
work week, though a passing shower will be possible across
the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in
this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 PM Update...

Showers are lasting a bit longer than originally forecasted.
Using hi-res guidance and manual edits, slight chance PoPs were
added for the next couple of hours. Skies are finally clearing
behind the passing showers. Areas under the cloudy skies and
rain showers are cooler than forecasted. Because of this, lows
were lowered in a few locations, mainly across CNY. The other
change was added additional fog to the forecast for the
overnight hours.

925 AM Update...

Some minor changes were made for this update but overall the
forecast is doing well.

640 AM Update

No significant changes. Touched up cloud cover based on the
latest visible satellite imagery and 09z HRRR. A few rain
showers will be possible along and north of I-90 now through mid
to late morning; just trace or a few hundreths of rainfall
expected here; dry elsewhere. Temperatures are starting off
between 55 to 65 out there early this morning. There is some
patchy fog around as expected. Generally, we are still expecting
the stratus cloud layer to scatter out, giving way to sunshine
by midday, with mostly sunny skies prevailing this afternoon.

215 AM Update

Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the
near term period.

Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before
scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to
feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the
boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper
60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE
PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15
mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly
diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches.

Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb
surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the
40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average
for late June, and will be quite refreshing.

Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday
morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the
afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog,
skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full
sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance
and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the
dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the
mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is
very close to average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure slides east Friday night with clouds beginning to move
in ahead of our next low pressure system. Overnight lows will range
in the low 60s across most of the region with some spots in the
mid 50s. Rain showers and thunderstorms move in from the west
early Saturday morning as deep SW return flow advects moisture
into the region. Models continue to show PWAT values ranging 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year with
values surpassing 2 inches. This along with a deep warm cloud
layer of 12-13K feet suggests conditions are favorable for heavy
rainfall that could lead to instances of localized flash
flooding. The convective potential at this time continues to be
unfavorable as the early arrival of rainfall should limit
instability. Rain showers are expected to continue into Saturday
night with a relatively warm temperatures as lows will range in
the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Cold front trails off a surface low in Canada kicking off
remnant showers and thunderstorms as this system tracks out of
our region. Chances of showers are expected mainly east of I-81
Sunday morning and afternoon. Overnight temperatures behind the
front will be cooler with lows ranging in the low to upper 50s.
Northwest flow over a `warm" Lake Ontario could produce some
showers early Sunday night. Added slight chance pops in
collaboration with our neighbors, otherwise showers will be
short lived and dissipate early Monday morning as dry air wins
out. Surface high pressure builds over the midwest Monday, but
upper level trough should keep temperatures relatively cool.
High pressure shifts east over our region by Tuesday allowing
temperatures to warm back up. Under this pattern conditions are
expected to remain quiet until midweek. Another surface low over
Canada is expected to track east with a warm front dipping into
our region by Wednesday kicking off showers. A cold front
follows behind with more showers possible for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected through this entire TAF period. West-
northwest winds will remain through the afternoon hours with speeds
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts. These winds
will diminish into the late evening hours below 10 kts before
becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will remain calm
through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog may be possible at
most terminals, exception being AVP and SYR, in the early
morning hours on Friday. However, confidence is low because
model guidance is suggesting very little fog, but forecast
soundings show a possibility for fog or low stratus. For now,
this was handled by tempo groups.

Outlook...

Friday Night...Mainly VFR; low chance for showers at CNY
terminals.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible, mainly Saturday and into Saturday night.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL/MB