508
FXUS61 KBGM 250714
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The rest of tonight will be cool and clear with patchy valley
fog over Delaware river basin. Tuesday will be mainly sunny and
warmer, with temperatures back up into the 80s. Wednesday has a
chance at seeing scattered severe thunderstorms once again with
best chances in the Southern Tier and Northeast PA during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
115 AM Update...

Skies are clear across the region with winds becoming light and
variable. Temperatures are dropping a bit more than forecasted,
with some of the cooler rural valley locations already in the
lower 50s. Areas east of Binghamton which did not see much
sunshine today, and therefore did not warm up and dry the ground
out are seeing valley fog forming...this includes the valleys of
Otsego and Delaware counties. From Binghamton west, it does not
appear much, if any fog will form tonight, as overnight lows do
not reach the crossover temperatures in most cases.

725 PM Update...

Updated the wind and wind gust forecast to match current
observations. As a low level jet moves out of the area, wind
gusts are expected to decrease through the next few hours.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track.


145 PM Update...

Winds have become quite gusty this afternoon as a 850 mb jet
passes over head with that wind able to mix down to the surface
at times. Most of the area has seen gusts of at least 30 with
hill tops getting over 40 mph and even a few locations getting
45 to 48 mph. The 850 mb jet is moving east through the rest of
the morning with winds calming down from west to east and with
loss of mixing after sunset, the rest of the area will have
winds lessen. Tonight with high pressure building in, valley
wilds will likely go calm. Fog was added to the grids mainly for
the upper susquehanna river tributaries as well as the Mohawk
valley as the clouds wont clear until near sunset so there will
be more moisture and a lower threshold for fog formation. East
of I81, dry air has been mixing in with sunnier skies as well as
drier so fog formation will be tough.

Tomorrow warms back up with the trough axis east of the region
and ridging builds in. Flow aloft becomes more SW bringing in
higher dew points once again. The region is looking to stay dry
but some of the models are trying to develop an MCS in the
northern plains tonight that tries to propagate through the
Great Lakes reaching our area by the afternoon. Confidence is
low that will happen as the flow aloft is zonal so any
propagating wave should be more west to east rather than dipping
south so lowered precipitation chances in the afternoon.
Overnight there is a shortwave digging in so that is when there
is better chances as showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
310 AM Update...

Cold front continues to move through Wednesday night as surface low
pressure system tracks east. The track of the low will determine the
amount of instability that will be present overnight. At this time
model guidance suggests conditions will wind down with some elevated
instability lingering. Therefore rain showers are mainly expected
with possible elevated thunderstorms. Behind the front temperatures
will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s overnight. As the upper level
trough tracks east model guidance shows a potential wave of moisture
moving through on Thursday. This may allow the chances for some
showers to continue through Thursday morning although NBM kept
conditions dry for now. Otherwise better chances for dry conditions
is Thursday afternoon/evening as an upper level ridge attempts to
build in with high pressure at the surface. Temperatures are
expected to range in the 70s for CNY with some areas in NEPA
climbing into the low 80s. With clear skies temperatures overnight
will fall into the upper 40s to low mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
310 AM Update...

High pressure centers over our region on Friday allowing calm and
dry conditions to continue. Another system approaches from the west
just in time for the weekend as upper level trough dips into our
area. This increases chances for showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday, possibly into Monday as well if upper trough is slow to move
out. Upper ridge and surface high looks to build back in on Tuesday
with drier conditions returning. Temperatures during this period are
expected to range in the 70s to mid 80s during the day with
overnight lows fluctuating with some nights in the 50s and some in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
140 AM Update

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies are nearly
completely clear over the region currently. Valley fog is
forming over the eastern counties where it is already cooler and
humidity levels remain high. For our taf sites, there is a
slight chance (10-20%) for patchy fog to form near RME over the
next several hours, as overnight lows approach the crossover
temperature (55F) here. ELM looks to remain above their
crossover temperature of 49F, even with the clear skies
overhead, so widespread fog in the Chemung River Valley is not
expected at this time. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected
areawide for most of the day today.

Some mid level clouds will approach toward sunset and into the
evening hours. There is a chance for some scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms after 00z, mainly for the NY terminals;
but confidence was too low to include in the tafs this far out
in time. Will monitor trends in the latest model guidance/CAMS.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night...Restrictions possible
in scattered showers and thunderstorms; especially Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...KL/MJM