636
FXUS61 KBGM 161942
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
342 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm
conditions through the rest of the weekend. Hot and humid
conditions expected through next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
145 PM Update...

Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge starting to
build in with surface winds becoming more southerly west of I81
early this afternoon. Southerly return flow will develop across
the entire region later this afternoon and overnight with dew
points beginning to nudge up.

Tomorrow will be our first of many hot days as 850 mb
temperatures push up towards 20C and 500 mb heights rise above
590 dm. Forecast soundings tomorrow still have plenty of dry air
in the mid levels and upstream soundings across the Great Lakes
and mid Mississippi river valley from 12Z also contain some dry
air above 850 mb. Decided to lower dew points a bit tomorrow
from late morning into the evening with some of that dry air
mixing in with day time heating. With soil moisture also
starting to go below climatology, more of the solar heating
tomorrow will go towards heating the air rather than
evaporation some of the NBM 90th was used to bump up highs a few
degrees from current model guidance. With the lower dew points,
heat indexes look to get warm but most of the area will be
staying below 90 outside of some of the river valleys and
coastal plain of Lake Ontario.

Tomorrow night will be staying warm with lows likely around 70
degrees. Heat continues to advect in aloft as with greater
amounts of water vapor slowing the efficiency of radiational
cooling at night so there will not be much relief from the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update...

Temperatures will continue to trend warmer Tuesday, kicking off an
extended period of temperatures around and exceeding 90F for
afternoon highs throughout the short term forecast period. This will
be driven by a strong high pressure just off the coast with 500mb
heights near 600dm and T850 around 20C. Model soundings are fairly
dry, especially within the boundary layer, and the ground continues
to dry out. As a result, forecasted dew points are lower than
previous updates. Even with this reduction, dew points will still in
the 60s and even low 70s.

A Heat Advisory was issued through Thursday for all CNY counties
except Sullivan and Delaware Counties as confidence is too low that
conditions will be met in the Catskills at this time. While some
valley locations may get close to excessive heat criteria (105),
confidence was not high enough to go with watches/warnings at this
time. For PA, advisory criteria is higher (100F), so confidence was
only high enough for the Wyoming Valley and Northern Tier. Wayne and
Pike Counties were left out as conditions do not look like they will
be met. The advisory for PA was only issued for Tuesday and could be
extended at a later time.

Flow around the high will work to advect in low-level moisture.
Instability will peak at around 1500 to 2000 J/kg during the daytime
hours, though shear looks to be weak. With this amount of
instability, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible if enough low-level moisture is available.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
345 PM Update...

The second half of the weekend remains somewhat uncertain as
originally it looked like there was relatively good agreement that
some relief would occur. Now there is a bit more divergence with
model guidance. Thursday will make a run at the hottest day of the
week as the hot and humid airmass stays overhead and high pressure
is slower to move further off the coast. 500mb heights do begin to
fall late in the work week and into the weekend which will lead to a
slow cooling trend through the weekend. While 80s will be slowly
sprinkled in throughout the region, some locations may see highs in
the 90s all the way through Saturday. This is one area where models
diverge as some keep a broader ridge over the region where as others
have a broad trough for the weekend. A ridge would keep heat around
whereas a trough would bring much needed relief.

Given uncertainty for this period, NBM PoPs were favored, which have
trended drier for Thursday and even Friday. As a frontal system
begins to approach the region from the north, isolated thunderstorms
may be possible Friday. Guidance pushes the front through early into
weekend. This system would bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the region and potentially much needed relief.
Chances for showers look potentially better during the later half of
the weekend as the next system sweeps across the Midwest and
approaches the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to remain through the next 24 hours at
all terminals. Tonight as warm air begins to move in, a low
level jet develops tonight but low level shear looks to stay
below the 30 knot threshold but could get close for a few hours
around 6Z, mainly for SYR, ITH and RME.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038-039-043-
     044-047.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
     NYZ009-015-018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055-056.
     Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ016-
     017.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MPK
AVIATION...AJG