116
FXUS61 KBGM 270616
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions return to the region through the end of the
work week, though a passing shower will be possible across
the Mohawk Valley region this morning. The next system moves in
this weekend, with periods of rain and thunderstorms in the
forecast Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

215 AM Update

Much quieter, cooler and less humid weather expected for the
near term period.

Clouds linger through much of the morning hours today before
scattering out midday or early afternoon. The afternoon looks to
feature plenty of sunshine and drier air mixes down into the
boundary layer. Cooler temperatures, with highs in the upper
60s to mid-70 across Central NY with low 70s to low 80s in NE
PA. NW winds will be a little breezy later today, between 8-15
mph with gusts up around 20-25 mph expected. Winds quickly
diminish toward sunset and high pressure approaches.

Cool and mostly clear with light winds tonight as a 1020mb
surface high builds overhead. Overnight lows dip down into the
40s and low 50s areawide. This is 5 to 10 degrees below average
for late June, and will be quite refreshing.

Sprawling surface high pressure remains in place Friday
morning, only slowly translating east into New England by the
afternoon hours. After some patchy early morning valley fog,
skies will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. With full
sunshine, went 1-2 degrees above the NBM temperature guidance
and also lowered surface dew points and RH to account for the
dry air mass centered over the region. Forecast highs are in the
mid-70s to lower 80s over the area Friday afternoon, this is
very close to average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1750 PM Update...

Capped the short term period at Friday as high pressure will
still be overhead during the day, but pushes east Friday night.

Previous Discussion...

Quiet weather on Friday with high pressure centered over our
region. Mostly sunny skies are expected with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will begin to
move in Friday evening as the next system approaches. Lows will
return to normal with temperatures ranging in the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1750 PM Update...

High pressure pushes east out into the Atlantic Friday night and
deep SW return flow will bring moisture advection into the
region on Saturday. Models have remained consistent with the 12Z
cycle with PWATs progged to increase to 2"+, which is close to 3
standard deviations above normal for this time of year.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours
will be likely with localized flash flooding possible. At this
time, the severe thunderstorm potential appears low for Saturday
afternoon, as ongoing rainfall and clouds over the area should
limit instability. High pressure will build back into the region
the start of next week with cooler and dry conditions expected.


Previous discussion...

Low pressure system tracks east and into our region on Saturday
along with a warm front producing showers and thunderstorms. Deep SW
return flow advects warm air and moisture into our region with PWAT
values 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Model soundings also
show a deep warm cloud layer up to 13K feet suggesting heavy
downpours and localized flash flooding is possible. Cold front from
this system will push through on Sunday with more showers and
thunderstorms. Model guidance shows an additional wave dipping
into our region on Monday, which could increase pops, but
decided to stick with the NBM this far out. Otherwise upper
level ridge moves into the region on Tuesday with drier
conditions returning. Another system approaches our area by
Wednesday with more possible showers.

Temperatures during this period fluctuate with highs mostly ranging
in the mid 70s to upper 80s and lows in the 60s. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler on Monday behind the cold front with
highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

215 AM Update

A complex forecast scenario as the deeper moisture and mid level
cloud deck slowly exits from west to east over the next several
hours. Behind this, fog may develop but there is some
uncertainty if this will happen and how low visibilities will
be. Will it be more lower stratus and CIGs, or will fog actually
develop. With visibilities already falling below 2SM in
portions of western NY where brief clearing took place decided
to bring ELM down to 2SM or lower, first in a tempo through 09z,
then prevailing 09-12z along with LIFR CIGs. ITH could also see
some brief light fog, but higher confidence in a period of IFR
stratus and CIGs through 12-13z this morning. RME and BGM look
to settle into an IFR CIG later this morning; mainly between 09z
to 13z, before lifting to MVFR Fuel Alt, then scattering out to
VFR by around 16z. AVP and SYR are forecast to see MVFR/MVFR
Fuel Alt CIGs mainly between 08-15z this morning, then
scattering out to VFR here as well.

VFR prevails areawide this afternoon, evening and likely most of
tonight. Cannot rule out valley fog at ELM, but confidence is
low at this time due to low level dry air in place and
relatively short nights.

Light and variable winds are expected through the mid morning hours.
West-northwest winds become stronger by late morning into the
afternoon; between 8-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts possible.
Winds quickly diminish under 10 kts toward sunset, and under 5
kts heading into the overnight.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Restrictions from showers and
thunderstorms possible.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...BTL