Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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871 FXUS63 KBIS 231132 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of showers (30 to 50 percent) this morning through this evening, which showers moving off to the east by the overnight period. - A gradual warming trend starting Tuesday will bring widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. Generally dry conditions are anticipated through the end of the workweek. && .UPDATE... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Generally quiet and dry conditions continue over western and central North Dakota this morning. A surface trough running north-south through eastern Montana has begun to promote showers to develop along its length into southern Saskatchewan. Theses showers are anticipated to continue to move to the southeast over the next few hours, eventually dipping into our northwest during the mid morning. Otherwise, a few areas of weak reflectivities can be found in the deck of high level clouds across much of the forecast area, though generally dry soundings indicate that not much if anything is falling out of of these, or if they are they are not likely to make it to the ground. Winds are generally out of the south light, though a few locations have begun to strengthen ahead of the approaching boundary. All in all, the forecast remains on track at the time of this morning update. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Flow over the northern Plains this morning is generally zonal, becoming increasingly southwesterly as a modest upper level shortwave digs into the region later this morning. High clouds and a few areas of weak reflectivities have developed across the forecast area ahead of this shortwave. A surface trough / weak cold front associated with this wave will progress eastward through the mid morning and afternoon hours, promoting increased chances for light showers, generally from 20 to 40 percent but with a slightly higher core of 40 to 60 percent in the northwest. Generally dry BUFKIT soundings and the angle of attack of the inciting shortwave may prevent the southwest from seeing much more than an isolated shower. These showers will clear from west to east this evening. Otherwise today, highs in the lower to mid 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south lingering over the area. Somewhat breezy winds will develop this afternoon as the cold front pushes across the forecast area, with speeds generally from 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Dry and quiet conditions are then anticipated to continue through much of the workweek as surface high pressure builds back into the region. This period will be characterized by a general warming trend as a transient upper level will push across the northern Plains, promoting widespread highs in the 80s and potentially even a few locations in the lower 90s by Thursday. The ridge is expected to diminish and pass eastward as we move into the weekend, allowing temperatures to drop broadly back into the 70s. As broad area of low pressure aloft is established across the southeastern CONUS, quiet weather is expected to continue over the northern Plains as any systems moving through the flow remains further to our north, though a southward deviation of this broad low could see chances for rain return to the forecast beginning late Saturday through early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Generally VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, a band of showers and mid level clouds will move in from the west along a weak cold front, sweeping across northwestern and central North Dakota through the afternoon and early evening hours. These showers are anticipated to be fairly light and scattered, with no visibility reductions expected at this time. Showers and cloud cover will generally clear from west to east early this evening and overnight. Winds are generally light and out of the south, but will turn to the northwest while strengthening to 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots as the cold front moves in during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then diminish and become west northwesterly through the evening and then end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam DISCUSSION...Adam AVIATION...Adam