529
FXUS63 KBIS 221736
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- With the exception of a passing shower northwest on Monday (15
  percent chance), expect dry weather through the rest of the
  weekend and the next work week.

- A gradual warming trend is expected as we progress through the
  next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For mid-day update main change was to increase cloud cover for
this afternoon as fair weather cumulus are starting to form
over much of the area with daytime heating.

UPDATE
Issued at 912 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Have allowed the frost advisory to expire as temperatures are
starting to warm over the area. Otherwise, sunny skies prevail.

UPDATE
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A quiet and chilly Sunday morning continues across western and
central North Dakota. Thus far, we have seen several readings
across the west in the lower 30s. No major changes were needed
for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the
going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of
northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Light
winds and a clear sky will lead to seasonably cold temperatures
this morning, especially across the west where we are already
seeing widespread temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. The
expectation is that we will continue to get a bit colder through
the morning hours, with several stations likely to dip into the
lower 30s across the west. Thus, the Frost Advisory looks to be
in good shape with no changes planned.

Today`s highs will be just a touch warmer than yesterday with
relatively light winds. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the
lower 70s (warmest southwest and south central) under plenty of
sunshine.

The upper level flow will deamplify through the day, becoming
nearly zonal by this evening and into the overnight hours. The
next shortwave trough then approaches on Monday. While most of
the synoptic forcing will remain north of the International
border, the NBM is starting to paint in some low chances (15
percent) of showers across the northwest on Monday along a
surface boundary. Highs will be another touch warmer on Monday
even though we will likely have fairly widespread cloud cover
(mid 60s to mid 70s).

The trough moves off into western Minnesota by Tuesday morning
and we transition back into northwest flow aloft as a western
CONUS ridge amplifies. The ridge will advance east through the
week with the axis moving overhead late Wednesday through
Thursday morning. We will then transition back into southwest
flow aloft. This pattern will lead to warming temperatures mid
to late week. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s to
mid 80s by Wednesday with some upper 80s possible again across
the southwest on Thursday. After the slight rain shower chances
on Monday, the rest of the week is forecast to be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period. Isolated light rain showers will be possible Monday
morning over northwest North Dakota, but visibility
restrictions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS/ZH
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...JJS