433
FXUS64 KBMX 210837
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
337 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Little day-to-day variability in sensible weather conditions will
continue through Sunday due to the presence of a deep-layer
ridge. As the center of a 500 mb ridge in Texas nudged eastward on
Friday, height rises corresponded with an increase in temperatures.
Very weak flow in the surface to 700 mb suggests little in the
way of temperature advection, meaning the airmass will continue to
cook through the weekend beneath subsident anticyclonically-curved
flow. Therefore, temperatures should to be a degree or two higher
today, and similar numbers are expected for Sunday. The majority
of the forecast area should experience afternoon highs ranging
from 92 to 95 degrees.

87/Grantham

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

The Gulf Coast ridge will keep central Alabama dry and toasty
through Monday. Global long range models have been pretty
consistent in breaking down or weakening the ridge starting next
Tuesday, which ultimately leads to (small) rain chances coming
back into the forecast through the mid-week period.

What is not consistent is what happens after that. There`s the
general idea of an upper level trough either digging into or
swinging across the nation`s midsection. Unfortunately, there`s a
pretty big difference in the subsequent ramifications on either
side of that "or", not only on our weather toward the end of the
work week, but also on how that trough interacts with anything of
a tropical nature that the models continue to hint at coming into
the Gulf. Wait and see, and play the 20-30 percent POPs game,
seems to be the prudent choice at this juncture.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

No impacts are expected to the TAF sites through the next 24
hours. VFR conditions will continue with light and variable winds
of 6 knots or less.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through Monday as high pressure
prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass
in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
each afternoon through Monday. 20 foot winds will be variable at
less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  66  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    93  68  93  69 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  70  93  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  94  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      94  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  95  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        93  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87/Grantham
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION...87/Grantham