Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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382 FXUS64 KBMX 160823 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 An upper ridge will continue shifting eastward across the southeastern United States today. Southeasterly flow will be in place over Alabama around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Highs this afternoon should rival yesterday, although likely a degree or two cooler this afternoon. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase this afternoon, with best chances in the southern counties and in the northeastern counties. Storm motion will be predominantly southeast to northwest, although potential outflow boundaries are likely to affect storm motion on a localized scale. Activity will linger into the evening hours before dissipating overnight. After another night of lows in the low to mid 70s, highs Monday will reach only to low to mid 90s. Shower and storm activity is likely again Monday afternoon, with greatest chances west of I-65. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 A highly anomalous and potentially unprecedented deep-layer ridge to our east, will expand on Tuesday, with its center shifting from North Carolina to near New York City. As the ridge remains nearly stationary through Thursday, 500 mb heights may reach an incredible 600 dam. At the southern periphery of the ridge, drier air circulating around the ridge will move into Alabama from the east. PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches on Tuesday and persist through Thursday. The easterly flow from the Atlantic should serve to moderate temperatures as well. NBM temperatures are well above MEX guidance through the long term period, which does not seem reasonable given reduced 850 mb temperatures and low-level thickness values. Therefore, this update undercuts NBM by 2 to 5 degrees for afternoon highs and 1 to 3 degrees for morning lows, for Tuesday through Saturday. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday. This may bring an increase in rain chances that could continue into Saturday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity ongoing near ANB at this hour should move away within the next hour. Otherwise a calm night. Vis may dip to MVFR around daybreak at sites that received rainfall this past evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist Sunday. There is a chance of rain and thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon, but coverage is too uncertain to mention at this time. 12 && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although spatial coverage looks to be somewhat limited. 20-foot winds will be southeasterly up to 6-8 mph each day through Tuesday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 35-45 percent range Sunday and remain above 40 percent on Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 95 69 94 69 / 30 10 20 10 Anniston 95 71 93 70 / 20 10 10 10 Birmingham 96 73 93 72 / 20 10 20 10 Tuscaloosa 96 73 91 72 / 20 20 40 10 Calera 96 73 93 71 / 20 10 20 10 Auburn 94 72 92 70 / 20 10 20 0 Montgomery 96 73 94 72 / 30 20 30 10 Troy 94 71 93 69 / 30 20 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....87/Grantham AVIATION...12