959
FXUS64 KBMX 171759
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Radar is fairly quiet just after midday, with most activity
remaining off to the south and west of Central Alabama. The upper
level ridge continues to pull off to the northeast, while building
over the Mid-Atlantic states. Easterly surface flow has begun in the
eastern half of Alabama with slightly drier dewpoints advecting
westward. Overall moisture from 1000-500mb will decrease with time
through the evening and overnight hours tonight as the easterly
flow aloft continues. Highest rain chances will remain across the
western half of Alabama through this evening where the deepest
moisture remains across the atmospheric profile. Additional 500mb
shortwave energy will help to trigger scattered to numerous
showers and storms for locations such as Carrollton, Demopolis,
and Livingston. A few strong storms aren`t out of the question,
but the atmospheric profile is much more moist today as compared
to Sunday with less DCAPE available to help transport gusty winds
to the surface. Isolated to scattered storms are possible as far
east as the I-65 corridor. The easterly flow will help to drop
temperatures a couple of degrees from the highs observed on
Sunday, but we`ll still be able to top out in the low to mid 90s.
Any convective development will diminish through the overnight
hours with lingering mid and high- level clouds. Muggy overnight
lows in the low to mid 70s will continue. Drier air from the east
will take over during the day on Tuesday and will prevent any
convective development. Highs are expected to be a tad cooler in
the upper 80s and lower 90s with humidity levels a little more
comfortable as dewpoints mix down into the low to mid 60s during
the afternoon.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

An exceptionally strong 500 mb ridge will be in place over the
northeastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Our area
will be on the southern periphery of the ridge where easterly
deep-layer flow will be associated with a relatively dry and
moderated Atlantic airmass. Dewpoints in the 60s and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. The moderating effects of easterly flow will wane for
Friday and Saturday as flow weakens, leading to temperatures
trending upward into the mid 90s.

A tropical wave is expected to weaken as it moves westward towards
coastal Florida and Georgia on Friday and Saturday with only a
minimal increase in PWAT values over Alabama. Any showers and
storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southern
part of the area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection
may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few
showers and perhaps a storm will be possible at TCL this
afternoon, but no prevailing SHRA or TSRA has been added into the
TAFs at this time. Clouds are expected to remain VFR during the
overnight, but a few MVFR observations aren`t out of the question
in a few locations, especially across southern Alabama. Winds will
prevail from the east to southeast this afternoon between 10 and
14 knots then diminish overnight. Easterly prevailing winds will
continue during the day on Tuesday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined mainly
west of Interstate 65 today. 20ft winds will be from the
southeast at 6 to 9 mph, and RH values should range from 40 to 60
percent this afternoon. Rain-free conditions will return for
Tuesday through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the
region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to
45 percent range each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  91  68  90 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    72  91  70  90 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  75  92  73  91 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  74  91  72  91 /  20   0   0   0
Calera      74  91  71  91 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      71  88  70  88 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  72  90  72  91 /  10   0   0   0
Troy        70  90  70  90 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...56/GDG