045
FXUS64 KBMX 212051
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
351 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

This afternoon.

Mid-level ridging remains to the southwest of the area while
surface high pressure across the Northeast portion of the country
continues to influence our local conditions.

Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with winds generally
from the north to northeast from 4-8 mph. High temperatures will
be in the lower 90s.

Tonight.

Mid-level ridging will become centered over the Central Texas
Coast overnight while a few mid-level disturbances will move
southeast over portions of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley
Region. Dry conditions will persist areawide but some remnant
clouds will stream southeast over the area from this activity to
our northwest.

Skies will range from partly cloudy far northwest and north while
fair skies are forecast elsewhere. Winds will be from the east to
southeast from 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from the mid
60s far northeast to the upper 60s elsewhere.

Sunday.

Mid-level ridging will remain to our southwest on Sunday while a
few impulses aloft will continue to move over the portions of
Tennessee and Northern Georgia. Clouds will be thicker across the
far north and northeast with potentially a stray shower or two far
northeast, but will keep PoPs unmentionable due to the low
potential.

Look for partly cloudy skies Sunday across the area. Winds will
be from the southeast to south at 4-8 mph. High temperatures will
range from around 90 in the higher elevations east to the low to
mid 90s west and southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

Not many changes needed in the extended this afternoon, as upper
level ridging remains over the area through at least Monday. Low
rain chances return to the northwest Tuesday afternoon, but expect
much of the area to remain dry until Wednesday. There is still
much uncertainty for the remainder of the week and into the
weekend. For now, will maintain much of the forecast until there
is better consistency regarding both a potential disturbance in
the Gulf and a closed low/trough in the southern Plains.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

The Gulf Coast ridge will keep central Alabama dry and toasty
through Monday. Global long range models have been pretty
consistent in breaking down or weakening the ridge starting next
Tuesday, which ultimately leads to (small) rain chances coming
back into the forecast through the mid-week period.

What is not consistent is what happens after that. There`s the
general idea of an upper level trough either digging into or
swinging across the nation`s midsection. Unfortunately, there`s a
pretty big difference in the subsequent ramifications on either
side of that "or", not only on our weather toward the end of the
work week, but also on how that trough interacts with anything of
a tropical nature that the models continue to hint at coming into
the Gulf. Wait and see, and play the 20-30 percent POPs game,
seems to be the prudent choice at this juncture.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Expect scattered
cumulus to again develop this afternoon as rain-free conditions
continue. Low-level winds will be from the north to northeast at
3-6 kts. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with light east to
southeast winds at 2-4 kts. Scattered cumulus clouds will develop
during the day Sunday with low-level winds from the south to
southwest at 3-6 kts.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances will remain at zero through Monday as high pressure
prevails. With temperatures in the 90s and a modestly dry airmass
in place, minimum RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
each afternoon through Monday. 20 foot winds will be variable at
less than 7 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  92  67  92 /   0  10   0  10
Anniston    67  91  69  92 /   0  10   0   0
Birmingham  69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  68  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      67  91  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      68  90  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        67  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...05