Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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959 FXUS64 KBMX 171759 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1259 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 Radar is fairly quiet just after midday, with most activity remaining off to the south and west of Central Alabama. The upper level ridge continues to pull off to the northeast, while building over the Mid-Atlantic states. Easterly surface flow has begun in the eastern half of Alabama with slightly drier dewpoints advecting westward. Overall moisture from 1000-500mb will decrease with time through the evening and overnight hours tonight as the easterly flow aloft continues. Highest rain chances will remain across the western half of Alabama through this evening where the deepest moisture remains across the atmospheric profile. Additional 500mb shortwave energy will help to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms for locations such as Carrollton, Demopolis, and Livingston. A few strong storms aren`t out of the question, but the atmospheric profile is much more moist today as compared to Sunday with less DCAPE available to help transport gusty winds to the surface. Isolated to scattered storms are possible as far east as the I-65 corridor. The easterly flow will help to drop temperatures a couple of degrees from the highs observed on Sunday, but we`ll still be able to top out in the low to mid 90s. Any convective development will diminish through the overnight hours with lingering mid and high- level clouds. Muggy overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will continue. Drier air from the east will take over during the day on Tuesday and will prevent any convective development. Highs are expected to be a tad cooler in the upper 80s and lower 90s with humidity levels a little more comfortable as dewpoints mix down into the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. 56/GDG && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 An exceptionally strong 500 mb ridge will be in place over the northeastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Our area will be on the southern periphery of the ridge where easterly deep-layer flow will be associated with a relatively dry and moderated Atlantic airmass. Dewpoints in the 60s and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Wednesday and Thursday. The moderating effects of easterly flow will wane for Friday and Saturday as flow weakens, leading to temperatures trending upward into the mid 90s. A tropical wave is expected to weaken as it moves westward towards coastal Florida and Georgia on Friday and Saturday with only a minimal increase in PWAT values over Alabama. Any showers and storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southern part of the area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture advection. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. A few showers and perhaps a storm will be possible at TCL this afternoon, but no prevailing SHRA or TSRA has been added into the TAFs at this time. Clouds are expected to remain VFR during the overnight, but a few MVFR observations aren`t out of the question in a few locations, especially across southern Alabama. Winds will prevail from the east to southeast this afternoon between 10 and 14 knots then diminish overnight. Easterly prevailing winds will continue during the day on Tuesday. 56/GDG && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined mainly west of Interstate 65 today. 20ft winds will be from the southeast at 6 to 9 mph, and RH values should range from 40 to 60 percent this afternoon. Rain-free conditions will return for Tuesday through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 72 91 68 90 / 10 0 0 0 Anniston 72 91 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 Birmingham 75 92 73 91 / 10 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 74 91 72 91 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 74 91 71 91 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 71 88 70 88 / 10 0 0 0 Montgomery 72 90 72 91 / 10 0 0 0 Troy 70 90 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56/GDG LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...56/GDG