880
FXUS64 KBMX 242057
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
357 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

Most areas south of Birmingham received beneficial rain early this
morning, some more than others. Radar estimates show pockets of
higher amounts up to 1 to 2 inches while some areas received a
few hundredths. The cold front is draped east to west just south
of Birmingham, and the remnant showers are now drifting south of
the forecast area. Temperatures have some catching up to do across
our south where readings are currently still in the 80s. However
this is where the highest moisture content is located and
dewpoints are in the mid 70s, so heat indices are already near
100F. Drier air is quickly filtering in from the north, so there
will be some mixing again this afternoon, but probably not as much
in our south where some areas could experience heat indices up to
105F. It will be hot across the board with highs in the mid to
upper 90s.

Ridging retakes control tomorrow with northerly flow continuing
to supply dry air to the region. Unfortunately, it looks to be one
of the hottest days so far, and there`s a chance we could see
some 100 degree readings out there. Dewpoints ranging from the mid
50s to mid 60s should prevent us from reaching Heat Advisory
criteria.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

No significant changes in forecast trends this afternoon for the
extended. It might take longer for convection to develop
Wednesday, as the initial focus is to our west. Convective temps
will run in the mid to upper 90s, and will likely need outflow
boundaries to help ignite convection locally. There is around
25kts of bulk shear during the afternoon across portions of the
west. This would help sustain storms, and increase the potential
for wind gusts, if storms can develop.

We flirt with heat indices around 103-105F each afternoon this
week. However, guidance continues to show upper level ridging
building back into the area for the weekend with moisture
remaining elevated. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s
while PWs remain around 2 inches and dewpoints in the low to mid
70s. This would send heat indices into the 105-110F range for
most of the area.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

Key messages:

- Rain chances have decreased somewhat and high temperatures have
  increased on Wednesday, but scattered showers and storms are
  still expected with some strong storms with gusty winds possible
  especially in West Alabama.

- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees will be possible Friday
  through the weekend.

Height falls will take place on Wednesday as one shortwave moves
through the Great Lakes and a weaker shortwave in northwest flow
aloft moves through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Due to the
stubborn dry air mass over our area, the higher rain/MCS chances
continue to trend westward, even west of our forecast area. Still,
given the shortwave and height falls and increasing moisture over
West Alabama, at least scattered showers and storms are expected
with higher coverage possible if any cold pools can organize.
Temperatures have trended upward as well, but with the lower dew
points expect heat indices to remain below 105 on Wednesday. Shear
and mid-level lapse rates will be weak, with instability dropping
off as you go eastward into the dry air. But given the dry air
aloft and hot temperatures at the surface, some strong storms with
gusty winds/microbursts will be possible if the storms can get
going and cold pools can form. Will monitor the mesoscale trends
to see if any isolated severe storms can develop.

A positively tilted trough will extend from the Carolinas
southwestward to the Florida Panhandle on Thursday, while ridging
begins to build back to the east across the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Dry air aloft will be advecting in from the northwest as a
surface frontal boundary washes out. Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will be possible especially in our southeast counties
closer to the better moisture. Highs will "only" be in the middle
90s in most locations. Strong subtropical ridging builds back in
over the Southeast Friday through the weekend. This will result in
hot temperatures continuing. Most areas remain dry Friday, but
PWATs increase over the weekend with weak low-level southerly
flow. This means that unlike the previous ridge there will be some
potential for diurnal convection which could impact highs in some
spots. Also, this will result in higher dew points meaning there
will be increasing chances for heat indices at or above 105
degrees.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2024

A line of showers has moved south of the TAF sites, and VFR
conditions will continue through this cycle. The cold front will
continue to progress southward with northerly sfc winds at 5 to 8
kts behind the front. Winds will go calm tonight with clear skies.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers end this evening, with rainfree conditions
expected through Tuesday night, as a front settles to our south.
Drier air arrives behind the front, with minimum RH values of
24-35 percent Tuesday. Overnight RH values recover to above 70
percent tonight and Tuesday night. Better rain chances arrive
Wednesday and Thursday. 20ft winds will become northerly on
Tuesday and westerly Wednesday, at less than 8 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  97  69  99 /   0   0   0  30
Anniston    66  96  70  98 /   0   0   0  30
Birmingham  71  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  30
Tuscaloosa  70  99  73  96 /   0   0   0  40
Calera      70 100  72  99 /   0   0   0  30
Auburn      71  97  72  97 /   0   0   0  30
Montgomery  71  99  71  99 /   0   0   0  30
Troy        71  98  71  99 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...86