409
FXUS64 KBMX 141820
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
120 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

The remnant low of Francine continues to rotate over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley today, slightly drifting to the east, but
with its center remaining to the west of Central Alabama. A
convergent low level moisture axis oriented north to south this
morning will continue to provide focus for showers. This axis is
expected to pivot northeastward today, with widespread showers and
occasional thunderstorms across much of the area, especially
across the north and east. As the upper low drifts back westward
tonight and tomorrow, the axis will remain over the area, allowing
for continued showers and storms.

Rainfall amounts today through Sunday could vary from 0.5inch to
as much as 4 inches, depending on where rain bands and training
set up. Opted to leave counties in the Flood Watch given the
uncertainty on the locations of these bands, and extended the
watch through tonight. As the upper low weakens, winds aloft have
also weakened. With less shear and limited surface instability,
chances of severe storms or tornadoes are too low to include in
the forecast.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

Monday through Friday.

The rainy pattern will continue Sunday night through Monday across
Central AL as the remnants of Francine persist for yet another day.
The trough deepens through the Gulf States Monday night into Tuesday
and will push a boundary southward towards the coast. Drier air will
build in behind this boundary Tuesday through Wednesday. Then, for
the second half of the week, a quasi-omega block pattern sets up
with a deep trough over the west coast and an upper low over the
Coastal Mid-Atlantic region. This will lead to mostly rain-free
conditions Wednesday through Friday across Central AL as drier
northerly flow persists on the back side of the low to our east.

Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid to upper 80s by the
end of the week with lows in the 60s.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2024

Low pressure and associated boundary will linger along the coast
with moisture continuing to stream up and around it into C AL
resulting in a wet forecast period including MVFR stratus to start
along with some IFR stratus overnight. Vsbys may go down in
heavier rain bands. Although the TS probability is not zero, it is
too low to mention in the TAFs.

NOTE: NIL TAF continues for KANB until further notice due to large
comms issue and missing obs.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue across the area today through early
next week. Winds will be out the east for much of the day and could
be gusty at times, especially in higher terrain areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     65  79  63  81 /  70  50  30  40
Anniston    67  79  66  81 /  70  50  30  40
Birmingham  67  77  66  79 /  70  70  40  50
Tuscaloosa  68  78  66  80 /  70  80  60  60
Calera      69  78  68  80 /  70  70  50  50
Auburn      68  77  66  79 /  70  70  50  50
Montgomery  69  79  68  79 /  60  80  60  60
Troy        68  78  66  78 /  60  80  60  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Jefferson-
Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08