939
FXUS64 KBMX 221954
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
254 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

The center of the elongated ridge is retrograding towards Texas.
This is resulting in some height falls, but also a shift to westerly
low to mid-level flow. This flow orientation will continue to
supply a steady stream of hot and dry continental air. 1000-850mb
thicknesses are forecast to rise over the next couple of days,
and highs will reach the mid to upper 90s both today and tomorrow
despite the height falls. The dry air aloft is causing afternoon
dewpoints to mix down into the mid 60s, so conditions are not
quite reaching Heat Advisory criteria at this time. A weakened
front will be near the Tennessee Valley towards the end of the day
tomorrow. A few showers and thunderstorms will be initiated by
the boundary, but rain chances will stay north of the forecast
area until the evening.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

The beginning of the work week continues to look hot as moisture
builds in the wake of the retreating upper level ridge. Will
likely need Heat Advisories for Monday and Tuesday, with heat
indices in the 105 to 108F range across the south and west.

With a series of upper level impulses and possible MCS features,
continue to hoist increased rain chances on Wednesday and possibly
into Thursday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

Key messages:

- Hot conditions continue into early next week with heat indices
  at or above 105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.

- One or more complexes of showers and storms may provide some
  temporary respite from the heat Wednesday but also gusty winds.
  However, details remain uncertain this far out.

Subtropical ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains
to start the period, while a trough amplifies over the Northeast
CONUS. This will place Central Alabama under weak northwest flow
aloft. A weak cold front will become diffuse across Kentucky and
Tennessee Sunday night, while a lee trough will be located along
the East Coast. A pre-frontal axis of PWATs near 2 inches will
move into our northern counties Sunday night. This may result in a
couple showers and storms moving into our northern counties from
the north Sunday night into Monday morning, though mid-level lapse
rates will be poor with weak shear and limited
forcing/convergence. As is typical this time of year, there won`t
be any cool air with the front but there will be a pronounced
moisture gradient, with the better moisture shifting to the
southern counties by Monday afternoon. Widely scattered showers
and storms will be possible though models seem to be backing off
on coverage. With less coverage, temperatures will warm up. Dew
points will mix out some in the afternoon, but not quite as much
as previous days given the increased moisture, so heat indices may
reach 105 degrees in spots.

The moisture boundary will become oriented northwest to southeast
by Tuesday with diurnal convection possible along and southwest of
it under weak ridging/flow aloft, though there is some spread in
the placement of this boundary. Prior to convection, temperatures
will warm into the upper 90s. The placement of the moisture
boundary will determine where dew points mix out the most, but
with the hotter temperatures a heat advisory appears likely for at
minimum the southern and western counties. A shortwave in
northwest flow aloft will result in troughing temporarily
developing over the Southeast CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. One or
more MCSs could move through during this time with increasing
moisture. Wednesday will see the highest rain chances of the
period with potential for a brief respite from the heat depending
on the timing of the MCS(s). Nothing really jumps out too much in
the convective environment just yet, but will keep an eye out for
the potential for gusty winds with any cold pools. It`s too far
out for any details on these MCSs. Ridging builds back into the
area by the end of the week causing the heat to return, though
some troughing and associated rain chances may linger near our
southeast counties.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

VFR conditions continue for yet another TAF cycle as a strong ridge
remains in place across the region. Winds will be light and
variable, and FEW/SCT cu and cirrus will drift across the area
through the afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions will continue through Sunday. 20 foot winds become
westerly Sunday at 4 to 6 mph. Afternoon RH values should range
from 30 to 40 percent Sunday afternoon. Overnight RH values will
be above 80 percent. Scattered rain chances return on Monday and
Tuesday, with an increase in minimum RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  97  73  97 /   0  10  20  20
Anniston    71  96  74  97 /   0  10  20  20
Birmingham  73  98  76  98 /   0  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  71  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  20
Calera      72  97  75  98 /   0  10  10  20
Auburn      72  95  75  95 /   0  10  10  20
Montgomery  71  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  30
Troy        70  97  74  97 /   0  10   0  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...86