657
FXUS64 KBMX 190601
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
101 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

A pleasant day is ongoing across Central Alabama and across the
region as a northerly flow continues at the surface. The closed
low continues to spin over the Smoky Mountains, with enough
moisture at the 700mb level for mid-level clouds to form across
northern and northeastern Alabama. So far, we don`t have enough
moisture for shower development but certainly can`t rule out a
very isolated shower across our far northeastern counties. Will
opt to keep mention of PoPs out of the forecast through the
afternoon on this update. Forecast highs remain in good shape and
on track to reach the mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the
far southern counties.

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight with some patchy
fog developing once again. Fog did not end up quite as widespread
as anticipated last night, and will therefore keep mention of fog
mostly patchy with isolated pockets of dense fog not being ruled
out. Lows will be a few degrees higher than last night as low
level moisture slightly increases in the low to mid 60s. The
closed low to our northeast will weaken and move eastward toward
the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, while upper heights will
increase over the region in response to a building ridge in
northern Mexico. With plenty of dry air across the profile, rain
chances will remain minimal with plenty of sunshine and highs
reaching close to 90 degrees areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

No major changes to the long-term forecast. The weather should
remain quiet for the next several days with the increased
presence of ridging aloft. However, the ridge is progged to
position to our southeast toward the end of the period, which
would support boundary layer moisture advection and perhaps a few
diurnal showers/storms in the area.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

Nothing much happening in the long term. Troughing along the east
coast will eventually give way to an upper level ridge that build
into the southeast states over the weekend and into early next week.
Moisture levels remain quite low, and rain chances will range from
slim to none. The upper ridge will also help temperatures climb back
up close to or above 90 degrees by the weekend as well. There`s some
hint of the ridge breaking down and allowing some moisture to return
to the area around the middle of next week. Will continue to watch
the tropics intently, but nothing of high enough confidence to get
too excited about for our area at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2024

With a relatively dry airmass in place, VFR conditions are
expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be mostly from the
north at 4 to 6 knots during the daylight hours.

87/Grantham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions and a warming trend are expected across the
area through the rest of the week, with light 20 ft winds.
Humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  64  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    88  65  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  88  68  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  90  67  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      89  68  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  68  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  90  69  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  68  90  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...87/Grantham