094
FXUS64 KBMX 170853
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
353 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

In the short-term, big upper level ridge centered in the Carolinas
early in the period will start its migration northward. Slightly
lowered heights here should lead to a modest abatement of high
temperatures compared to the previous couple days (lower/mid 90s
versus mid/upper 90s). Tropical moisture will also continue to get
guided into the state from the Gulf, especially on the western
periphery of the ridge. This should lead to an increase in diurnal
convection coverage this afternoon west of I-65. An easterly low
level flow on Tuesday will help continue the moderating trend in
temperatures. Interestingly, that easterly flow also looks like it
is going to help push the tropical moisture plume even farther
west, leaving dry conditions for central Alabama on Tuesday.

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

An exceptionally strong 500 mb ridge will be in place over the
northeastern United States on Wednesday and Thursday. Our area
will be on the southern periphery of the ridge where easterly
deep-layer flow will be associated with a relatively dry and
moderated Atlantic airmass. Dewpoints in the 60s and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. The moderating effects of easterly flow will wane for
Friday and Saturday as flow weakens, leading to temperatures
trending upward into the mid 90s.

A tropical wave is expected to weaken as it moves westward towards
coastal Florida and Georgia on Friday and Saturday with only a
minimal increase in PWAT values over Alabama. Any showers and
storms on Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southern
part of the area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection
may occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Aside from leftover batch of showers that could move through TOI
between 06Z and 07Z and briefly drop visibility below 6sm,
conditions are expected to remain VFR across the area overnight.
Surge of moisture from the Gulf will have more impact the farther
west you go on Monday. Based on latest computer model guidance,
I`ve limited any mention of TSRA in the TAFs to TCL. Beyond 00Z,
all signs point to VFR areawide once again, as thunderstorm
activity continues to slide farther west.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms should be confined mainly
west of Interstate 65 today. 20ft winds will be from the
southeast at 6 to 9 mph, and RH values should range from 40 to 60
percent this afternoon. Rain-free conditions will return for
Tuesday through Friday as easterly winds bring drier air to the
region. This will lead to a downtrend in RH values into the 35 to
45 percent range each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  70  90  68 /  20  10   0   0
Anniston    93  71  90  69 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  93  74  91  73 /  30  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  91  74  90  72 /  40  20   0   0
Calera      93  73  91  71 /  30  10   0   0
Auburn      91  71  87  69 /  10  10   0   0
Montgomery  93  73  90  72 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        93  70  90  70 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION.../61/