284
FXUS65 KBOI 190239
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
839 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers continue this evening across the
higher terrain of the north, and this will end by midnight MDT.
After that, clouds will decrease and mostly clear skies are
expected. Tomorrow will be warmer than today with mostly clear
skies. All this is handled well by the current forecast and no
changes are needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Isolated showers will continue this evening over
higher terrain in SW ID/NE OR, mainly in the Wallowa and West
Central Mountains. Generally VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions in
rain and snow showers. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Surface
winds: variable less than 10 kt, except erratic winds with gusts
to 25 kt near showers. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S through W
5-15 kt through 19/12Z, then variable 10kt or less.

KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable
less than 6 kt becoming E-SE 4-8 mph around 19/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Convection has
been minimal this afternoon as a weak upper trough lingers over
the interior Northwest. A few small showers were noted near
McCall along with cumulus buildups over the higher terrain.
There is a very remote chance (less than 15 percent) of an
afternoon thunderstorm in central Idaho. The activity shifts
eastward and weakens later this evening with the loss of heating
and exiting trough. A longwave trough settles near the west
coast for the remainder of the period, resulting in southwest
flow aloft over our area. This will bring a warming trend with
highs around 10 degrees warmer on Wednesday and another 5 to 10
degrees warmer on Thursday. Some lower valley locations could
exceed 90F Thursday afternoon. Moisture is too limited for
convection, but will bring occasional mid-high level clouds.
Winds remain light through the period.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A weakening upper trough
traversing the region will temporarily slow down the warming
trend on Friday, but the heat builds over the weekend with the
return of southwesterly flow aloft. The trough brings with it
some clouds, but little moisture for convection. However, there
is a 15 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers in central
Idaho east of McCall and Idaho City. The weekend still looks
hot and dry. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of high
temperatures reaching 100F in the lower valleys both Saturday
and Sunday. Models continue to depict an upper trough moving
through the Pacific Northwest early next week. Moisture remains
north, but an attendant cold front would bring 5 to 10 degrees
of cooler temperatures (but still above normal) Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW