Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
284 FXUS65 KBOI 190239 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 839 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .DISCUSSION...Isolated showers continue this evening across the higher terrain of the north, and this will end by midnight MDT. After that, clouds will decrease and mostly clear skies are expected. Tomorrow will be warmer than today with mostly clear skies. All this is handled well by the current forecast and no changes are needed at this time. && .AVIATION...Isolated showers will continue this evening over higher terrain in SW ID/NE OR, mainly in the Wallowa and West Central Mountains. Generally VFR, except MVFR/IFR conditions in rain and snow showers. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt, except erratic winds with gusts to 25 kt near showers. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S through W 5-15 kt through 19/12Z, then variable 10kt or less. KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: variable less than 6 kt becoming E-SE 4-8 mph around 19/06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Convection has been minimal this afternoon as a weak upper trough lingers over the interior Northwest. A few small showers were noted near McCall along with cumulus buildups over the higher terrain. There is a very remote chance (less than 15 percent) of an afternoon thunderstorm in central Idaho. The activity shifts eastward and weakens later this evening with the loss of heating and exiting trough. A longwave trough settles near the west coast for the remainder of the period, resulting in southwest flow aloft over our area. This will bring a warming trend with highs around 10 degrees warmer on Wednesday and another 5 to 10 degrees warmer on Thursday. Some lower valley locations could exceed 90F Thursday afternoon. Moisture is too limited for convection, but will bring occasional mid-high level clouds. Winds remain light through the period. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A weakening upper trough traversing the region will temporarily slow down the warming trend on Friday, but the heat builds over the weekend with the return of southwesterly flow aloft. The trough brings with it some clouds, but little moisture for convection. However, there is a 15 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers in central Idaho east of McCall and Idaho City. The weekend still looks hot and dry. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance of high temperatures reaching 100F in the lower valleys both Saturday and Sunday. Models continue to depict an upper trough moving through the Pacific Northwest early next week. Moisture remains north, but an attendant cold front would bring 5 to 10 degrees of cooler temperatures (but still above normal) Monday and Tuesday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....BW