167
FXUS65 KBOU 221141
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper ridging to move in bringing hotter and drier conditions to
  the forecast area this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The convection is over across the CWA at this time.  The winds
across the forecast area are still being affected by it, but some
areas are showing weak drainage patterns going.

Models show the upper ridging over the southeastern U.S. to build
westward today and tonight. The flow aloft for the CWA will be
zonal tonight. Precipitable water values dry out into the 0.50 to
0.80 inch range for this afternoon and evening. Surface dew
points are progged mostly to be in the 40s F this afternoon and
evening. The CAPE values are lower then they have been the last
couple days with some over the mountains and northeast corner later
today. Most of the models show limited late day convection for
the CWA this afternoon and evening and cross sections point to
higher based storms. More wind and less rainfall.

For temperatures today, highs look 1.0-2.5 C warmer than Friday`s
highs. There will be less low level moisture as well. A streak,
perhaps a substantial one, of 90 degree highs in Denver will
likely commence this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level ridge over the Central and Southern Rockies will
be responsible for bringing very warm/hot temperatures and mostly
dry conditions through most of next week. Models are in good
agreement high temperatures reach the upper 90s across northeast
Colorado Sunday and Monday. A few low 100s seem reasonable as
well. Enough moisture gets trapped under the ridge for
afternoon/evening high based showers and thunderstorms. Brief
light to moderate rain and gusty outflow winds will be the main
features with showers and storms for both Sunday and Monday.
Southerly low level flow over the plains increases low level
moisture Sunday over far eastern Colorado Some stronger storms may
be found east of a line from Sterling to Limon.

Forecast becomes a little uncertain beginning Tuesday. A short
wave trough passes over the ridge and across the Northern Plains.
A cold front associated with it pushes southward across eastern
Colorado early Tuesday. May not be much cold air behind it with
model guidance showing highs taking a small step back, into the
lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado. For Wednesday through
Friday, upper level ridge remains over the region and will
continue to bring above normal temperatures, with highs in the
90s. Seems to be some agreement among the models that subtropical
moisture increases over Colorado and brings a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Weak drainage winds finally started at DIA around 08Z early this
morning. They are more due southerly as well.  Pretty normal
diurnal wind patterns are expected at the big airport today and
tonight; although speeds will be on the weak side. Debated whether
or not to put outflow gusts in the TAF this afternoon without
mention of the TS.  Opted no for this update, however a TEMPO
group with VRB20G40KT may eventually be needed. I did keep the
VCSH in there, which could easily produce strong outflows as
well. There should not be any ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RJK
LONG TERM......Meier
AVIATION.......RJK