057
FXUS65 KBOU 221747
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1147 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper ridging to move in bringing hotter and drier conditions to
  the forecast area this weekend into early next week.

- Above normal temperatures expected through next week with upper
  90s to low 100 readings across the plains and eastern I-25
  corridor early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Warm start to the day given ample sunshine. Temperatures are
approaching 80 across the central plains and urban corridor this
morning. Surface observations show dewpoints in the low 50s across
portions of the plains this morning; however, dewpoints are
expected to drop as temperatures warm and the boundary layer mixes
out this afternoon. The edge of the mid-level moisture plume can
be seen on satellite to the southeast of the region keeping
northeast Colorado drier than the last few days. Marginal CAPE and
moisture will support isolated high-based showers and a weak
storm over the higher terrain. Can`t rule out showers straying
onto the adjacent plains bringing mainly virga and brief gusty
winds. Made some minor adjustments to precipitation probabilities
by delaying the shower/storm chances until the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The convection is over across the CWA at this time.  The winds
across the forecast area are still being affected by it, but some
areas are showing weak drainage patterns going.

Models show the upper ridging over the southeastern U.S. to build
westward today and tonight. The flow aloft for the CWA will be
zonal tonight. Precipitable water values dry out into the 0.50 to
0.80 inch range for this afternoon and evening. Surface dew
points are progged mostly to be in the 40s F this afternoon and
evening. The CAPE values are lower then they have been the last
couple days with some over the mountains and northeast corner later
today. Most of the models show limited late day convection for
the CWA this afternoon and evening and cross sections point to
higher based storms. More wind and less rainfall.

For temperatures today, highs look 1.0-2.5 C warmer than Friday`s
highs. There will be less low level moisture as well. A streak,
perhaps a substantial one, of 90 degree highs in Denver will
likely commence this afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level ridge over the Central and Southern Rockies will
be responsible for bringing very warm/hot temperatures and mostly
dry conditions through most of next week. Models are in good
agreement high temperatures reach the upper 90s across northeast
Colorado Sunday and Monday. A few low 100s seem reasonable as
well. Enough moisture gets trapped under the ridge for
afternoon/evening high based showers and thunderstorms. Brief
light to moderate rain and gusty outflow winds will be the main
features with showers and storms for both Sunday and Monday.
Southerly low level flow over the plains increases low level
moisture Sunday over far eastern Colorado Some stronger storms may
be found east of a line from Sterling to Limon.

Forecast becomes a little uncertain beginning Tuesday. A short
wave trough passes over the ridge and across the Northern Plains.
A cold front associated with it pushes southward across eastern
Colorado early Tuesday. May not be much cold air behind it with
model guidance showing highs taking a small step back, into the
lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado. For Wednesday through
Friday, upper level ridge remains over the region and will
continue to bring above normal temperatures, with highs in the
90s. Seems to be some agreement among the models that subtropical
moisture increases over Colorado and brings a better chance for
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Light N to NE winds
this afternoon. There is a low chance (< 20%) of an isolated
shower or storm later this afternoon after 21Z. They will likely
be high-based in nature resulting in virga and brief variable
gusts up to 35 kts and winds. Winds become southerly tonight at
07-12 kts. Dry conditions and light winds expected Sunday.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mensch
SHORT TERM.....RJK
LONG TERM......Meier
AVIATION...Mensch