Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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913 FXUS65 KBOU 200252 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 852 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued cool into tonight with scattered showers and a few storms. - Scattered thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. A few could be strong to severe, and also produce locally heavy rain. - Hotter and drier this weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Showers are ongoing mainly across the higher terrain this evening although a few showers are progressing onto the plains. The chance of showers will persist through the night as models are latching onto another area of forcing that arrives after midnight. The NAM Nest, which has performed well this year with convection, shows strong storms forming mainly in and near El Paso County overnight tonight. It shows significant rainfall with these storms in excess of 5" actually. It is highly unlikely heavy rain occurs from these storms overnight but the chance for storms appears to be growing especially in Douglas and Elbert Counties. PoPs were increased in those counties overnight tonight. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday/... Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Current GOES-16 visible imagery shows clouds have persisted into the afternoon as expected. The latest radar scan shows a few storms have developed over southeastern CO, and showers are forming over the high country. These showers are expected to continue into the evening with some hi res models indicating a chance of nocturnal storms over portions of the plains tonight. With low level flow coming from the southeast, there is a chance that some patchy fog develops across the Palmer Divide and spreads northward across the adjacent plains, as well as areas near the Cheyenne Ridge and adjacent plains this evening and tonight, and is expected to diminish by the early morning. Southwesterly flow aloft continues for tomorrow as upper level troughing continues over the western CONUS. Temperatures will be much warmer than what was seen on Wednesday with the potential for another 90 degree day across portions of the plains. With increasing low level moisture, synoptic forcings, ample surface heating, and forecast soundings indicating a veering profile, thunderstorm development is likely across the forecast area. The environment looks to have potential for a few thunderstorms to become severe, especially for locations north of I-76. These locations are where MLCAPE values are expected to range from 1200 - 1800 J/kg, bulk shear values ranging from 25-35kts are also portrayed in Buffkit soundings within this area. The SPC has placed portions of northern CO in a marginal risk with the biggest threats expected to be wind and hail. These are expected to persist into the evening hours. More on this below. && .LONG TERM /Thursday night through Wednesday/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Not a lot has changed since 24 hours ago, except that we now officially have the first named storm of the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Alberto. That system will have some play in our weather, bringing a connection of subtropical moisture northward into Colorado. We`ll likely be on the northern edge of this plume, but it will still add to the amount of available moisture from Thursday evening through Friday evening, and likely enhance shower and thunderstorm coverage and rainfall efficiency. More on that in the hydro discussion below. With the increase in moisture and instability for Thursday, we`ll see those showers and storms continue into the evening, with the greatest coverage likely shifting just east of the I-25 Corridor and onto the plains, as per normal diurnal evolution. A couple of those could still be strong to severe given the parameters mentioned above. Meanwhile, showers could linger in the mountains overnight as the mid level plume of subtropical moisture arrives. For Friday, another repeat of showers and storms can be expected, although there`s still no strong forcing to increase coverage to anything more than scattered. It still appears the embedded shortwave that rides across the Central/Northern Rockies will be in the late night hours Friday night or early Saturday morning, and thus not a big contributor for coverage. That said, showers could linger during the night Friday night with weak forcing in the moisture plume. By daytime Saturday, we`ll get into subsidence and a drier airmass overall. This will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s across the lower elevations, and also confine most convective coverage to the higher elevations and Palmer Divide. For Sunday through Wednesday, there is still good agreement that an upper level ridge will dominate the Central and Southern Rockies. We`ll be on the northern periphery of this ridge, but the westerly (downslope) flow will support a return of hot weather. High temperatures for the plains and I-25 Corridor will likely push into the mid to upper 90s each day. There does appear to be a little moisture trapped under the ridge, enough for isolated high based convection most days. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/... Issued at 655 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Showers and storms have formed over the higher terrain this evening and have been struggling to maintain their strength as they move off the terrain. Some of these may impact the terminals through 05-06Z but the impacts should be minimal. The strong SSE winds will continue well into the evening hours with gusts up to 40 knots at DEN and APA. Late tonight and into tomorrow morning, there is a small chance of fog. There is a 20 percent chance of fog at BJC and 10 percent chance at DEN and lower at APA. Therefore, the chances are low enough that they were not included in the TAFs. But impacts could be large since the fog could bring visibility down to less than half a mile. Winds will again be gusty tomorrow during the day. There is a much greater chance of thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Gusty winds up to 35 knots with small hail is possible with these storms. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2024 An increase in low level moisture, combined with mid/upper level moisture spilling northward from Tropical Storm Alberto will support storms with locally heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday. Rainfall efficiency will grow, as warm cloud depths increase to 4,000-5,000 ft, rather impressive for this time of year. NAEFS show precipitable water (PW) increasing to 1-2 standardized anomalies, and greater than that on the western slope (due to this earlier than climatological arrival of the subtropical moisture plume). Storm motions should move along at a decent clip of 20-25 mph, although a Bunkers right mover could be closer to 15 mph. Overall, burn scars would be most susceptible to any flooding threat over the next couple days, but we have seen vegetation improvement in the last couple years and somewhat higher flash flood thresholds. So, overall a limited to elevated threat for burn scars at this point. We couldn`t even rule out some minor urban flooding if we got a stronger storm in a metro area. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Danielson SHORT TERM...Bonner LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Danielson HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch