779
FXUS61 KBOX 211150
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
750 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore low remains stagnant through this evening and begins
to move to the southeast Sunday and continue through Monday.
While dry weather is expected Sunday through Tuesday, cloudier
conditions and onshore breezes are expected, along with a risk
for higher surf through Monday. Rain chances then increase again
for midweek as a frontal system moves in from the Great Lakes.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected into
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No big changes to the forecast this morning. Made some tweaks to
reflect regional radar data and observed temperatures.

Previous Discussion...

Little change in the forecast for today as the area of low
pressure south of Nantucket continues to dominate the weather
in southern New England. Steady northeast winds from 10 to 20
mph persist today with periods of showers for locations east of
Worcester. Winds will also remain gusty near the coast and
especially over The Cape/Islands where periods of 30+ mph gusts
are expected this afternoon. Highs today top out in the low to
mid 60s across eastern MA and RI. Areas further west look to
stay dry, but under overcast skies. Highs in the CT River Valley
reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Tonight and Tomorrow

Area of low pressure south of Nantucket slowly retrogrades
southeast. Latest model guidance suggests it will regress far
enough that low-level jet will shift south off the south coast
bringing an end to the steady rainfall and stronger northeast
wind gusts. Nonetheless, elevated northeast winds persist
tonight from 10 to 20 mph with some gusts in the 20 to 30 mph
range near the coast. Lows bottom out in the mid too upper 50s
across eastern MA and RI. Areas to the west may see some
clearing overnight, particularly areas near the CT River Valley.
This would allow for slightly cooler temperatures in the lows
50s overnight.

Sunday will feature very slow improvements to the cloudy/dreary
pattern we`ve been stuck in since mid-week. Not expecting any
precipitation, but overcast skies will be likely across eastern
MA and RI for most of the day. Should see some breaks of sun
west of Worcester where high temperatures will be pleasant in
the upper 60s to low 70s. Can`t rule out some late sunshine for
areas east of Worcester as skies gradually clear with the area
of low-pressure off the south coast continuing to move out to
sea.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:

* While dry, still a cloudier-than-not period with continued NE
  breezes through Tue. High surf and/or elevated risk for rip
  currents as well through at least early next week, and minor
  coastal flooding on east-facing coasts again possible into
  Sun.

* Frontal system around Wed or Thu offers the next chance for
  rainfall, although the timing remains uncertain.

* Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

Details:

The stagnant low pressure finally gets kicked out to sea as a
high pressure builds over southern New England from eastern
Canada. This high pressure will dominate our weather with drier
and cooler conditions into at least early Wednesday. Some
question after then about how quickly this high pressure will
move off to the east and permit a low pressure to move into the
Great Lakes. Latest guidance suite may be a little too fast
returning a risk for showers Wednesday given the synoptic
pattern. Given the uncertainty in the details, stayed closer to
the NationalBlend solution. More confident in unsettled weather
redeveloping late next week as a low pressure passes by.

With the continued northeasterly flow and elevated seas, there
will continue to be a risk for rip currents and high surf with
a need for rip current and/or surf headlines for the eastern
coast. While astronomical tides trend lower each day, we could
still have pockets of minor coastal flooding and/or washover
onto vulnerable shoreline roads Monday, but the risk is
considerably lower than this weekend.

Northeast winds become east Tuesday, then persist into late next
week. This will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High Confidence

Continued IFR/MVFR ceilings east of ORH with improvements to VFR
at BAF/BDL by 16-18Z. Gusty northeast winds gradually diminish,
but remain elevated with gusts up to 20 knots near the coast
and 25 to 30 knots over The Cape/Islands terminals. Shower
activity remains confined to the same locations.

Tonight...High Confidence

MVFR ceilings everywhere except BAF/BDL where VFR cloud bases
should prevail. Some patchy fog developing overnight in the
typically fog prone areas. Steady  near 10 knots with some
gusts up to 20 knots possible. Shower activity wanes toward 12Z.

Sunday...High Confidence

MVFR for the first half of the day, then gradual improvements to
VFR by mid to late afternoon. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

BOS TAF...High Confidence

Remaining between MVFR and IFR through this afternoon. Appears
better chances for rains around 11z and continue until midday
before shifting southward. NE winds continue, gusting up to 30
knots tonight before mostly remaining around 25 knots Saturday.
Should see improvements to VFR by Saturday evening.

BDL TAF... High Confidence

Deterioration to MVFR ceilings tonight, before trending VFR
ceilings around Sat aftn.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday

Gale force wind gusts gradually die down today over the south
coastal waters, but seas remain elevated with significant wave
heights continuing to range from 6 to 10 feet over the marine zones.
While gale force gusts should diminish by this afternoon, still
expect persistent northeast winds with gusts up to 30 knots. This
pattern will continue through at least Sunday.SCY headlines will be
needed through this time frame. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the southern New England coastline.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for this afternoons high
tide. Storm surge associated with the area of low-pressure south of
Nantucket likely peaked yesterday around 1.6-1.7 feet. There were
several reports of minor coastal flooding along the east coast. With
total water levels slightly lower today, we don`t anticipate impacts
any worse than what was observed yesterday, but we do expect another
round of minor coastal flooding with todays high tide. With the area
of low-pressure slowly retrograding southeast, the elevated water
levels will persist into tomorrow afternoons` high tide when another
Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect.

In addition...because this is a long duration event there is
also concern for beach erosion. This is especially true for
areas that were hard hit by the storms of last winter.

Lastly...we have gone with High Surf Advisories for all ocean
exposed beaches along both coasts given the rough seas offshore.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-019-
     020-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ007-
     015-016-019-022>024.
RI...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230-
     236.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-
     250-251-254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/RM
NEAR TERM...Belk/RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/RM
MARINE...Belk/RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RM