Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
032 FXUS64 KBRO 261708 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The passage of a cold front this morning will bring drier conditions and gusty winds this afternoon, with a minor impact on temperatures. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with low temperatures tonight falling to the upper 60s to low 70s. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures are expected to be back to the low to mid 90s. Stronger winds over the coastal waters will result in greater wave heights. Combined with the arrival of long period swell from Hurricane Helene in the Eastern Gulf, these greater wave heights are expected to create hazardous beach conditions. A high risk of rip currents are expected through the period, with minor coastal flooding possible as well. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The forecast period starts with a large 500mb low centered over the Middle Tennessee River Valley moving northeast over the Appalachians through the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds over the Four Corners. As the 500mb ridge expands eastward, much drier air and increased subsidence will lead to dry weather through the weekend. Gulf moisture may begin to increase across the area early next week. The GFS is more robust with PWATs reaching 2.2 inches by Monday morning, while the ECMWF paints much lower PWATs across the area and keeps the bulk of the deeper moisture well offshore. Will lean towards the NBM and mention some low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. An enhanced rip current risk and minor coastal flooding will be possible at beaches along the Lower Texas Coast Friday night into Saturday. Near to above normal high temperatures will prevail through the period with highs in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s at the beaches. Drier air will keep heat indices below 100 degrees and will support a minor heat risk through the period. Overnight lows will feel rather comfortable with below normal temperatures and slightly drier air expected through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 A cold front has passed through the region and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all aerodromes. Behind the front winds will remain between 10 and 15 kts with gusts to around 20 kts through this afternoon. Winds will decrease this evening becoming light and variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Today through Friday...Gusty winds are expected in the wake of this mornings cold front, resulting in building seas this afternoon. Additionally, Hurricane Helene is currently traversing the Eastern Gulf, headed towards the Florida coast. Long period swell generated by the hurricane is expected to begin arriving along the Lower Texas Coast this afternoon, further enhancing wave heights. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will be needed for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters today, and a Small Craft Advisory will be needed for the offshore Gulf waters through Friday afternoon. Friday night through Tuesday...Swell from Helene will continue to lead to elevated seas on the Gulf waters Friday night. Therefore, Small Craft Exercise Should Caution headlines may be needed Friday night for the Gulf waters. Seas are expected to subside over the weekend, with favorable conditions prevailing through the remainder of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 71 / 20 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 72 96 72 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 68 94 69 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 77 87 77 / 20 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 70 / 20 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for TXZ451-454- 455. from 10 PM CDT this evening through Friday morning for TXZ451- 454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...60 LONG TERM....63 AVIATION...68