Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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549 FXUS64 KBRO 191734 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The short term period will continue to be dominated by a developing tropical disturbance over the Southern Gulf. The NHC continues to forecast this system making landfall as a Tropical Storm along the Mexican coast. A broad wind field extending to the north of the circulation will bring the threat of Tropical Storm- Force winds to the coastal counties of Deep South Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for all of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties. In addition to the wind, showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across the CWA through the period. The WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall today and a slight risk Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat of flash flooding through the period. Additionally this system will likely enhance the low-level shear profile this afternoon, presenting a threat for some brief tornadoes. The SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep South Texas Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf, Rip Currents, and some Moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The tropical system will continue to impact the region through the start of the long term period, with rain chances potentially lingering into the weekend and early next week. An upper level high pressure system centered over Texas and the Southern Plains will continue to support easterly to southeasterly winds over Deep South Texas, potentially funneling additional tropical moisture into the region through the period. Beach conditions will likely improve over the weekend as seas begin to diminish in the wake of this system. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Through 18z Thursday.... Aviation IDSS Key Messages: * Waves of showers and thunderstorms to persist over the next 24 hours * Mainly MVFR-IFR conditions to continue; Instances of LIFR possible in the heaviest rain bands * Winds will remain gusty at times out of the east-northeast MVFR conditions with intervals of rain were taking place at the terminals this afternoon under a BKN-OVC deck of cumulonimbus and cumulus clouds with bases ranging between 1,000-3,000 feet AGL. Visibilities were unrestricted at KBRO/KHRL, while -RA and BR had visibilities reduced to 3 statute miles. MVFR-IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to persist through the 18z TAF cycle as waves of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm Alberto continue. There could be instances of LIFR conditions in some of the heaviest of rain bands. Winds are expected to continue out of the east-northeast between 15- 25 kts with gusts between 35-40 kts through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move slowly westward and strengthen to a Tropical Storm before making landfall in Mexico. A large wind field extending to the north of this system will likely support high seas as well as the potential for Tropical Storm Force winds. Winds and seas are expected to improve over the weekend, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in place for the Laguna Madre and Coastal Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 81 89 80 91 / 100 100 80 90 HARLINGEN 78 89 76 91 / 100 100 80 90 MCALLEN 80 89 78 91 / 100 100 80 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 87 77 89 / 100 100 80 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 87 83 87 / 100 100 80 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 89 79 90 / 100 100 80 90 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454- 455. Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355-451-454-455. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355- 451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...23-Evbuoma