596
FXUS64 KBRO 192330
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
630 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

-Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf of Mexico this
 morning.

-Periods of heavy rain will continue through the period.

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to be the main focus for the
short term period with Alberto expected to make landfall Thursday
morning in northeastern Mexico. While the storm will make
landfall well south of the CWA, the broad wind-field of Tropical
Storm force winds has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for all of
Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties. Winds will continue to
increase through the rest of today and this evening, especially
along the coast, where gusts could exceed 45 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
period and the WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall
today and a slight risk Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat
of flash flooding through the period. Generally an additional 2
to 4 inches of rainfall is expected for much of the region through
Thursday night. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially
in areas that see multiple bands of heavy rainfall.

Additionally the enhancement of low-level shear profile through
this evening will present a threat for some brief tornadoes. The
SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep South Texas.

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue
producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf,
Rip Currents, and moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with
this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to impact Deep South Texas for
the first part of the long term period as rain lingers into
Friday. Rain chances will continue into this weekend and next week
as another area of disturbed weather in the southern Bay of
Campeche. This area of disturbed weather along with mid/upper
level high pressure over the southern Plains into the SE U.S. will
continue to lead to east/southeasterly flow helping to funnel
tropical moisture into the region. Current forecast shows another
2 to 4 inches (locally higher amounts) Friday through Tuesday.
Currently the NHC has this system at a 30% chance of development
in the next 5 days.

While temperature have not been quite so high thanks to the tropical
system, next week temperatures will slowly climb back into the 90s
and "feels like" temperatures will creep back up into the upper 90s
and 100s.

Beach conditions will improve over the weekend as seas begin to
diminish in the wake of Tropical Storm Alberto.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Through 00z Friday....

Aviation IDSS Key Messages:

* Waves of showers and thunderstorms to continue over the next 24
  hours

* Mainly VFR-IFR conditions to continue; Instances of LIFR possible
  in the heaviest rain bands

* Winds will remain gusty at times out of the east-northeast

VFR conditions were taking place at KBRO and KHRL under a SCT-BKN
deck of cumulus clouds with bases between 3,000-6,000 feet AGL and
unrestricted visibilities. IFR conditions were ongoing at KMFE due
to low stratus and rain.

VFR-IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to persist through the 00z TAF cycle
as waves of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical Storm
Alberto continue. There could be instances of LIFR conditions in
some of the heaviest of rain bands.

Winds are expected to continue out of the east-northeast between 10-
20 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to lead to hazardous marine
conditions through the remainder of the week. Tropical Storm force
winds are expected to persist through at least Thursday afternoon
with seas remaining in the 12-16 foot range through tonight and
slowly lowering through the weekend. By Monday seas of 4 to 5
feet are expected. Another system may potentially develop over the
weekend in the Bay of Campeche leading to additional showers and
thunderstorms into early next week which could locally enhance
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  89  80  91 /  90  90  80  90
HARLINGEN               78  89  77  91 /  90  80  80  90
MCALLEN                 79  89  78  91 /  90  90  80  90
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  86  77  89 /  90  90  80  90
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  87  83  86 /  90  70  90  90
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  89  79  89 /  90  70  80  90

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-
     455.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355-
     451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....68-McGinnis
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma