695
FXUS64 KBRO 241850
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
150 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the late afternoon and evening hours across Deep
South Texas due to the combination of high moisture content and
daytime heating. Outside of the threat of lightning, brief heavy
rain, and gusty winds will be the main threats with any
thunderstorms. Any development will begin to wane late this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Persistent low level easterly to
southeasterly flow will maintain mild and humid conditions tonight,
with low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Patchy
fog may develop over portions of the Northern Ranchlands late
tonight, but should dissipate Tuesday morning.

Near normal high temperatures are expected on Tuesday as Deep South
Texas remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging
centered over West Texas and New Mexico, with highs mostly in the
90s. In combination with elevated humidity, heat indices will range
from 100-111 degrees during the afternoon hours. Based on the
current high res guidance, a Heat Advisory will likely not be needed
as heat indices across portions of the region may only reach 111
degrees briefly tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, precipitation chances
on Tuesday will be confined mainly to any development along the sea
breeze. Similar to this afternoon, the main threats will be brief,
locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Another mild and
humid night is expected Tuesday night with lows ranging from the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

A midlevel ridge over Texas will begin to shift east this weekend.
In the meantime, low level high pressure over the East coast will
allow for onshore flow and tropical moisture to continue to stream
into the region through the period. Thus, rain chances will
increase each day, especially in the afternoon along the sea
breeze. Some of the heavier showers/thunderstorms could produce
brief heavy rainfall, and with the rain we have gotten over the
past week or so, could lead to ponding of water on roadways and
low laying areas.

Temperatures will remain near normal each day, and heat indices
may reach 100-111 degrees in a few isolated spots for a brief
period of time, but not long enough to issue any Heat Advisories.
Sea breeze activity could also help to limit temperatures/heat
indices in the afternoon. Patchy fog will also be possible each
morning through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal SCT to BKN cloud
cover and scattered SHRA across the region. High res guidance
indicates scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will be possible
through the afternoon and early evening hours as high moisture
content remains in place. There is a low potential of intermittent
MVFR ceilings late tonight into tomorrow, but confidence was too
low to warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise,
expect east to southeast winds around 10 knots to prevail through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tonight through Tuesday night...Favorable marine conditions will
prevail through the period with light easterly winds and low seas as
the are remains under the influence of surface high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday....Onshore flow will continue
through the forecast period. Generally favorable conditions with
gentle breezes will continue through the workweek before the
gradient increases. Moderate winds over the weekend will lead to
caution conditions. Waves of 2 to 3 feet will start the period,
increasing to 4 to 5 feet and occasional 6 ft waves by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  80  93 /  10  10   0  20
HARLINGEN               77  94  76  94 /   0  20   0  10
MCALLEN                 79  95  79  96 /  30  20   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  94  77  94 /  20  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  87  82  87 /  10  10   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  91  79  91 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ351-
     354-355-451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...68-McGinnis