Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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292 FXUS61 KBTV 190531 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue through the next several days without significant rainfall. Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, and then temperatures will trend towards normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 131 AM EDT Thursday...No change to the forecast. There`s amusingly lapse rates of 8-9 C/km...around 300mb. So there`s some vertical depth to clouds around 15000-20000 ft above ground level. Of course, it is so dry beneath that nothing is falling, but radar is picking up on some virga. Otherwise, we`ve go fog developing, but a bit more slowly given the high clouds. Mainly massaged the going forecast with all in great shape. Previous discussion...Today has been another very quiet day. Winds are calm areawide with some high altitude clouds streaming northward. As a disorganized low pressure system in the mid- Atlantic region heads northward along the coast tonight into tomorrow, we will see a northerly wind develop by tomorrow afternoon. These modest winds (mainly 5 to 10 MPH with a few higher gusts) will be the main difference between today and tomorrow. Temperatures and humidity will be generally similar again to what have seen most of the week. The prevalence of high clouds that have moved into the area today will persist, with coverage tending to shift eastward through tomorrow such that northern New York will become sunnier. Some of the thicker cloud cover that will be present through tonight may thin out a bit during the day tomorrow, which has led to a slight warming trend in the forecast highs. The cloud cover tonight may reduce radiational fog coverage a bit, but the light northerly flow and moderately moist surface conditions along with persistence suggests another round of dense fog. Tomorrow night I have also brought fog into the climatologically favored locations after midnight with low level flow still light enough to support its development. That being said, increasing easterly flow overnight in Vermont may lead to stratus. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...A weak coastal storm is forecast to slowly move eastward off of the mid-Atlantic coast during the period. However, the broad upper level circulation will be elongated such that some mid-level moisture will be thrown back into the northwest quadrant of the storm. The moisture advection may be just enough to support a few showers in Vermont, and a surface trough may be draped over eastern and south central Vermont to help generate a more focused area of showers. So we do have chances of showers in the midday through evening hours primarily in these areas, but also extended into the western Champlain Valley. Forecast soundings off of the GFS look reasonable with weakly unstable profiles with low-topped showers. That would be consistent with a fairly dry air mass and only moderately warm and humid surface conditions, so rainfall should be light. Low level temperatures only look slightly lower than recent days, so another day of above normal temperatures looks on track unless daytime cloud cover winds up being more substantial than currently forecast. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Wednesday...Aside from lingering low chances of showers in southern areas on Saturday, another dry weekend should be in the cards. There is large spread in possible rainfall on Tuesday with a split between scenarios that bring in some light rain or keep us dry. Slight chances of showers remain in mainly northern New York at this time. However, a more substantial chance chance of rainfall still appears to come in towards Wednesday or possibly next Thursday associated with a more robust trough approaching from the west. However, the large scale pattern over the central US, which would determine if we see wet weather, is rather uncertain, so stay tuned! Temperatures through the period look rather seasonable with highs in the 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions are present, with patchy fog starting to form, but a bit more slowly than the last several nights due to high clouds about 15000-20000 ft agl. Still expecting fog to form across favored valleys and indicate LIFR to IFR conditions for KMSS/KSLK/KMPV/KEFK through about 11z-13z. Otherwise, quiet weather with north to northeast winds around 5 knots and few clouds that trend light or terrain driven beyond 00z Friday. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes/Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Haynes