019
FXUS61 KBTV 250600
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure causing showers this afternoon and evening
will move east tonight, and high pressure builds in for tomorrow.
This will lead to a sunny and much warmer day. A cold front
approaches on Wednesday and brings the possibility for strong storms
and heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...River valley fog has become
entrenched in central Vermont along/east of the Green Mountains,
with more localized fog elsewhere, based on webcams and
satellite imagery. Meanwhile, narrow strips of mid-level clouds
are streaming southward on continued northerly flow aloft. Have
modified the fog forecast to account for these observations,
although periodic clouds are too transient to capture in the
hourly forecast. Overall, forecast is in good shape with no
other significant changes made.

Previous Discussion...Showers are expected to dwindle this
evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the east and is
replaced by building high pressure and ridging. Any additional
rainfall from lingering showers will amount to up to 0.25". Ridging
will also allow skies to gradually clear throughout the night
tonight, and temperatures should drop into the 50s for most, which
is roughly seasonable for late June in our forecast area. With
clearing skies, high pressure subsidence, and recent rainfall, there
is the potential for some patchy fog tonight, particularly in the
more typical valleys spots.

The ridge will crest over us tomorrow, and 925mb temperatures are
expected to be in the 22-24 C range, which should allow surface
temperatures to climb into the 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Increasing
moisture in the atmosphere and a shortwave trough will bring clouds
into the area from the west throughout the day tomorrow, which could
limit temperatures slightly. Tomorrow night, a warm front will cross
the forecast area, producing some light rain showers, most likely
over northern New York and northern Vermont. Rain will be light,
perhaps up to a tenths of an inch at most. This warm front and the
increased clouds will allow low temperatures to simmer in the 60s
throughout tomorrow night, a noticeable difference from the cooler
weather we expect tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Model evolution for Wednesday system has
changed a bit from runs 12- 24 hours ago. Most feature a slightly
more southerly track resulting in a shift in best instability and
track of heaviest rainfall. As such, daytime precipitation chances
were largely reduced early Monday before increasing again Monday
afternoon and overnight. The system trajectory is now favored more
on a southwest/northeast track in the consensus with moderate rain
probable across mainly southern Vermont. NAM/mesoscale models
continue to be drier with an even farther south placement of the
surface low and could see a forecast trend in this direction should
other global models/ensembles trend similarly. Still, ample
moisture, a forcing mechanism, and elevated instability will keep
chances of thunderstorms going late Wednesday into the overnight
hours before the surface feature tracks eastward into Maine by
Thursday morning. Temperatures should warm into the 80s during the
day temperatures cooling into the 50s and 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Shower chances diminish early Thursday with
cool air advection and building high pressure under northerly flow.
Dry conditions will likely prevail into the weekend with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s Thursday and
Friday. Conditions begin to change Saturday ahead of the next system
projected to move through the region. Southerly flow will likely
increase as models show an amplified trough approaching the region.
Thermal/pressure gradients will be moderately tight resulting in
some southerly breezes likely into the 20-30mph range. While the
system has system has some robust characteristics and upper level
support, amplitude of the longwave favors a fast moving wave. Timing
will be key in determining characteristics of sensible weather, but
right now frontal passage is favored over Saturday night. Some
thunderstorms are projected off of elevated instability and relative
forcing, but the nocturnal passage will limit overall strength.
Could see another round of moderate rainfall with this system
keeping soils wet. High pressure appears poised to fill in behind
this wave with dry conditions probable to start the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06z Wednesday...Fog is present at EFK and SLK, where
IFR/LIFR conditions are favored to persist through around 12Z
based on climatology before quickly improving. River valley fog
in central Vermont has developed but remains just outside of the
MPV terminal. Given satellite trends, have left out prevailing
fog there but have tempoed it in from 09Z to 12Z given 30-40%
chances of development overnight.

Otherwise, surface winds will remain light/calm at all
terminals through morning, then increasing into the 6 to 12
knot range during the day ahead of an approaching low pressure
system. These winds will largely be southwesterly across much of
northern New York, southerly in the Champlain Valley, westerly
at RUT and MPV, and northwesterly at Newport. Winds will trend
southerly across the region after 00Z as shower chances
develop, mainly in western portions of the airspace. There could
be some gusty winds late in the period with these showers with
dry low level air in place.


Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Storm
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Chai/Kutikoff