288
FXUS61 KBTV 160153
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
953 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm and dry day is on tap again for Monday after
the morning fog burns off. Highs will climb into the upper 70s
to mid 80s with comfortable humidity values. Very little change
in our weather is anticipated for most of this upcoming week,
with warm days and cool nights. A slight chance of showers are
possible on Wednesday night across southern Vermont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 951 PM EDT Sunday...No changes needed with this update.
Clear skies abound across the region, as this should be the rule
overnight. The exception will be patchy valley fog, which may
not be quite as extensive as the past couple of nights owing to
a 25 kt low-level jet. Lows will range from the upper 40s to the
upper 50s. The forecast has this all covered and remains on
track.

Previous discussion...Another beautiful afternoon acrs the
fa with plenty of sunshine and temps warming into the upper 70s
to mid 80s. We have reached 85F here as of 3 PM, as some
slightly drier air aloft has mixed toward the sfc resulting in
dwpts 2 to 8 degrees lower today. This wl result in a delay
for fog/br development acrs our climo favored valleys tonight.
Expect fog between 06-12z in valleys as temps cool back into the
mid/upper 40s SLK/NEK to near 60F CPV and parts of the SLV. For
Monday, mid/upper lvl ridge remains overhead, along with plenty
of dry air. Sounding profiles suggest mixing of dry air near
850mb toward the sfc again, so have trended toward the 10% NBM
dwpts btwn 17-21z Monday. Aftn min rh`s range from the mid 30s
to mid 40s depending upon location/elevation. This dry air
should help for our temps to overachieve slightly, so have
trended toward the 75% NBM for highs. This is supported by
progged 925mb temps near 20C, supporting highs upper 70s to mid
80s. I have 86F here at BTV. Little change on Monday night with
mostly clear skies and light winds, should allow for fog develop
by 06z acrs many of our climo favored valleys. Lows slightly
warmer, given the warmer daytime highs with values in the upper
40s/lower 50s to lower/mid 60s CPV/urban heat islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...While high pressure remains over the area,
Tuesday will see a slow creep of higher level clouds from the low
pressure system currently off the coast of the Carolinas. The high
pressure will continue to win out as we`ll have another mostly sunny
day with some thin could coverage overnight which looks to lead to
another night of favorable fog conditions.

Daytime highs for Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with
overnight lows in the 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...The aforementioned low pressure down by the
Carolinas will will move inland and north towards Southern New
England Wednesday into Thursday, bringing some slight chances for
showers for Southern and Central Vermont during the overnight hours.
Models are indicating that the low will try to battle the ridging
over our area for a couple days, but right now, it looks like the
ridge will win out and continue to keep most of the CWA dry during
the back half of the week. Some models hint at a backdoor front on
Friday, but right now the moisture with it does not look impressive
but could bring some weak showers during the day.

While temperaturewise we will continue to remain unseasonably warm,
we will see a cooling trend with highs in the low to mid 80s mid
week, dropping to the mid to upper 70s by the weekend. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s to start and trending to the mid 40s to mid
50s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z Tuesday...Tricky forecast overnight/early Monday
with respect to potential extent of fog. VFR conditions will
prevail under clear skies through 06z, then expect patchy valley
fog to develop thereafter. South low-level jet AOB 1000 ft will
limit fog potential to mainly the climatologically favored sites
of KSLK/KMPV. Still, have delayed the start time for any
vis/ceiling restrictions at these two terminals, though still
anticipate IFR/LIFR periodically after 07z, and prevailing 09z-12z.
Elsewhere, fog will be more transient at KEFK/KMSS, with periods
of MVFR/IFR possible 08z-12z. No fog is expected at
KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. Outside of fog, SKC-FEW sky conditions with VFR
to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Light and
mainly terrain driven winds overnight, except SE 5-10 kt at
KRUT through 14z. Light and variable winds continue at all
terminals thereafter except KPBG/KBTV, where SE/S winds 8-10 kt
are expected, respectively.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Hastings