Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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283 FXUS61 KBTV 161921 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 321 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm weather will continue through midweek. While chances for isolated to scattered showers return on Friday and Saturday, high pressure will quickly build back over the North Country to support more dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 321 PM EDT Monday...The Rex Block pattern that has kept our weather sunny and warm day after day will continue into Tuesday. A corridor of slightly more humid low level air, featuring valley dew points mainly in the low to mid 60s, is focused over our region today. The heat and humidity is helping to generate a lot of fair weather cumulus in our higher terrain, but strong ridging aloft will cap these clouds through the rest of the day such that no showers are expected. We`re struggling to mix down the dry air aloft, however, which is keeping temperatures slightly cooler than forecast. Tomorrow a subtle shift of low level winds to more of a westerly direction is forecast during the day, but really for most purposes the sensible weather will remain the same so highs will likely be about the same as today. The persistent, large ridge in place will minimize cloud cover and 850 millibar temperatures look similar if not slightly higher than today. We had been anticipating some increase in high altitude clouds associated with the tropical/hybrid cyclone near the Carolinas, but the system has trended farther south such that this cirrus that moves into our area will tend to be scattered rather than opaque. As such, it still may effectively be sunny, especially as one goes farther north/east in New York and Vermont. Any cloud cover will not impact fog formation, which should be rather robust overnight given slightly higher dew points than yesterday. Then tomorrow night, marginally lower surface moisture points to less coverage and duration of fog but generally. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue to feature quiet weather with warm temperatures for Northern New York and Vermont. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s on Wednesday, with minimum temperatures then only dropping onto the 50s to around 60. Winds will be light with partly cloudy skies. There will be some chance for showers south of our forecast area as remnants of tropical system pass along southern New England coast. High pressure riding over our area should keep all of this activity to our south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Mainly dry weather will continue from Thursday through Monday. Could see an outside chance for an isolated light rain shower on both Friday and Saturday, but for the most part no significant weather is anticipated. Really strong ridging remains in place over the region. Temperatures will trend back towards seasonal normals during this period, but mainly dry weather continues. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 18Z Tuesday...A stagnant weather pattern continues with terrain driven winds and nocturnal fog development. Expect another round of VLIFR conditions due to fog at MPV and SLK, with MSS also likely periodic fog given persistence. Humidity levels are somewhat higher than yesterday, which should support greater chances of fog at EFK, but for now have BR until confidence increases. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue with light wind. Outlook... Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff NEAR TERM...Kutikoff SHORT TERM...Neiles LONG TERM...Neiles AVIATION...Kutikoff