Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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568 FXUS61 KBTV 191803 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 203 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a backdoor front will shift southwest. It could produce a handful of light showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather conditions will become dry once again heading into next week, but with more seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and lower 40s to lower 50s at night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 144 PM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the 130 pm update. Temperatures continue to warm into the lower 80s. Only some high clouds around with some fair weather cu over the higher elevations as well. Previous discussion follows. The sun is rising over thinning high clouds and valley fog. The weather map looks much the same as the last several days. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s once more this afternoon and fall back into the 50s to lower 60s at night, with a few spot 40s across some of our cool hollows with just a bit of fog developing in favored locations. We`re still on track for the backdoor front and a narrow tongue of moisture to support isolated to locally scattered precipitation Friday afternoon with marginal 100-250 J/kg instability. Convection will be shallow and will struggle to form cloud ice. So no thunder is present in the forecast. Precipitation, if any, will wane with the sunset. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Influence from the offshore low will linger Friday night into Saturday with isolated to scattered showers mainly for southern Vermont. A few sprinkles will be possible across central Vermont Friday night and Saturday afternoon, but no appreciable chance of meaningful rainfall. More noticeably, the high temperatures Saturday will trend back to seasonal averages in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is highly favored to return late Saturday through the beginning of next week with dry conditions expected. However, with easterly surface flow associated with the lingering offshore low, temperatures are not expected to rebound. Highs in the mid/upper 60s to around 70 degrees are likely to persist through much of next week with cooler lows mainly in the 40s. By midweek, there are continued indications of a pattern shift with an amplified low potentially riding up the backside of the upper level ridge as early as Tuesday. Blended model guidance shows a more progressive pattern trying to move the ridge. However, blocking patterns are notoriously stubborn, so it should take more time to beat down the upper ridge. Therefore, edged the forecast more towards deterministic models which better highlight the conceptual model of a slower onset of rain. With a slower onset, jet energy will most likely exit northward before a front can sweep through the North Country indicating a weakening of surface features over time. Kept slight chances of rain mainly Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensemble/deterministic/blended guidance become aligned by Wednesday night into late next week with another system moving into the backside of the ridge. This system should have more success in moving into the North Country, thus favored at least scattered showers returning. It should be noted that model guidance keeps the rex blocking pattern over eastern Canada, so there is no guarantee that there couldn`t be a more westward placement of this persistent feature that would keep conditions drier and warmer over the North Country. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 18Z Friday...Mainly high clouds at or above 15000 ft and a few cumulus clouds this afternoon will dissipate after sunset. Winds will be north to northeasterly around 4 to 8 knots, and then become light and terrain driven after sunset about 23z. Expect valley fog to develop again beyond 06z at BTV, SLK, MPG, EFK, and MSS. Any fog that forms should lift by about 13z. Outlook... Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Neiles