740
FXUS61 KBUF 151036
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
636 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain the warm, tranquil weather pattern
across the area through much of Tuesday. A low pressure system
moving inland from the Carolina coast will then spread moisture
northward to the forecast area by Tuesday evening, bringing
additional clouds and possibly some showers through the midweek
timeframe.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The center of a strong 590dm ridge over the eastern Great Lakes will
subtly shift southeast to New England by tonight, becoming more
aligned with its axis of surface high pressure with time. This will
all but guarantee our stretch of quiet weather continues onwards.
Satellite imagery and sfc obs early this morning indicating typical
nocturnal valley fog east/southeast of the lakes, with just patchy
fog elsewhere. This will lift and dissipate by mid-morning, leaving
us with yet another beautiful weather day across the forecast area.
A bit more moisture and steeper lapse rates will lead to more in the
way of afternoon cumulus, though there should be plenty of sunshine
in the mix. Highs will be warm again in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Clear skies and light winds will lead to another cool night tonight
with temps dipping back into the 50s to low 60s. More nocturnal fog
is expected in at least the Southern Tier valleys, though patchy fog
formation can`t be ruled out in other areas as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The resident ridge will elongate and settle off the New England
coast Monday and Monday night, as a (sub)tropical low over the
Carolinas Monday pushes inland into the Appalachians by Monday
night. Moisture associated with this system will continue to be
suppressed to our south with continued fair dry weather expected
across our area through Monday night, although there should be a
gradual increase in mid/high clouds working in from the south during
this time. 850 mb temperatures running in the 13-15C range should
maintain highs Monday in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Latest model guidance continuing to trend further west and north
with the track of the low, with an approach into the lower Ohio
Valley expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing Atlantic
moisture being feed into the region on a southeast flow may bring an
area of showers northward into the region by Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. Operational models still differ with the exact track
and timing of this system, so stayed close to the ensemble solutions
to smooth out some of these differences. Additional cloud cover
along with the potential for some rain Tuesday may keep temperatures
a bit cooler with most highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Moisture will increase across the eastern Great Lakes region the
second half of the week, however a rex block will maintain a strong
ridge just north of the region. Overall, mainly dry and warm weather
will continue with low chances for showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Thursday.

There is uncertainty in the placement and movement of an upper level
low near the Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic region late in the week.
The evolution of this low will dictate the details in availably
moisture and therefore clouds and precipitation. An easterly low
level jet will likely pump Atlantic moisture into the northern Mid-
Atlantic reaching western NY by Thursday. There remains low chances
for showers with slightly higher confidence in the afternoon/early
evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. A few thunderstorms can`t be
ruled out during this time. The upper low will likely move towards
the eastern seaboard if not off the east coast Friday into Saturday
as a strong ridge approaches from the Mississippi Valley. Mostly dry
weather is expected Friday and Saturday.

Above normal temperatures will continue Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure across the Northeast will result in continued light
winds and mostly clear skies through the 12z TAF cycle. Some
nocturnal fog that formed overnight remains in close proximity to
the TAF sites with the exception of KBUF. This should dissipate
entirely by 14z, leaving the region with widespread VFR conditions.

Valley fog is expected to redevelop in the Southern Tier valleys
tonight, with patchy fog elsewhere. Confidence is generally low in
possible reductions to vsbys (especially at KART) though the
majority of the IFR vsbys are expected to stay away from the TAF
sites. Fog is not expected to reach KBUF at this time.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. Patchy fog with local IFR developing at night
and early morning, mainly across the river valleys of the Southern
Tier.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. A small chance of showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes early this week, with light winds and minimal
wave action. Light 5-10kt lake breezes should develop in the
afternoon today and again on Monday.

The pressure gradient will tighten a bit by Tuesday as a low
pressure system slowly drifts northward from the Mid-Atlantic
states. This will lead to a prevailing light to moderate east-
northeasterly breeze on the lakes, which could result in a minor
chop on the western end of Lake Ontario at times. This low pressure
system could also bring a few showers to the lakes around midweek.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...PP