Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
351 FXUS65 KBYZ 250828 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 228 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday night... The powerful upper ridge axis over the region will shift slowly east today to the high plains as a broad trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will create both warm air advection over our region and lee side surface troffing. This in turn induces some brisk south/southwest winds in our foothills by afternoon (gusts 30-35 mph possible). Temps will jump into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will also be brisk in SE Montana/NC Wyoming with very low afternoon humidity. This area didn`t see much rain from the the last precipitation event so the Red Flag in place from noon to 800 PM seems quite prudent. The winds may back off a bit in the foothills tonight, but some weak gapping efects may keep them elevated at times. For Thursday...Broad upper trough moves across the northern Rockies breaking down the upper ridge. An associated front, shallow in nature, will push through our CWA by late afternoon. Any cooling may be offset to some degree by mid level downslope flow, so dont expect much relief from the warmer temps. Highs will still reach the lower 80s west to upper 80s in the far southeast. The atmosphere will be much to dry to expect any precipitation behind the frontal passage...we may not even see that much cloud cover. Gusty afternoon west winds, especially in the foothills, will back off after sunset. BT Friday through Wednesday... Friday through Sunday, above normal temperatures will persist, with highs in the 70s to 90F. The chance for precipitation remains very unlikely (less than 15%). Poor relative humidity recoveries in the south and east (15-25%), along with the above normal temperatures could bring some concern for fire weather. However, winds during this period are not expected to be very strong, gusts in the 10s to low 20s mph. Uncertainty in the forecast increases Sunday into Wednesday, with ensembles hinting at an upper trough moving across the Northern Rockies late Sunday or early Monday. Cooler temperatures, in the 60s and 70s are shown in ensemble meteograms as well as the current forecast, Monday through Wednesday. It is worth noting that while the ensemble meteograms show near normal highs, there is a large spread between the min/max percentiles, with the max highs shown in the 80s and min highs in the 50s. Matos && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will begin to pick up across much of the area this morning with gusting into the 20s to near 30kts. Otherwise, clear skies and dry conditions will prevail. Matos && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 090 060/084 051/085 052/083 053/084 046/065 039/072 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U LVM 088 053/082 048/084 047/084 050/084 039/066 036/076 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/U 10/U HDN 092 055/085 049/086 049/086 050/088 044/067 037/073 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U MLS 092 057/082 050/085 052/085 057/085 047/062 038/070 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 4BQ 094 059/088 051/088 052/088 059/090 048/065 038/071 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 10/U BHK 089 056/086 046/087 050/085 054/087 044/064 035/068 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/N 10/U SHR 095 054/091 048/088 049/088 051/090 044/067 034/076 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 131. WY...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 274. && $$ weather.gov/billings