Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
657 FXUS65 KBYZ 182009 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 209 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday night... Low pressure, currently over northeast Montana, will continue to drift northeast tonight through Thursday. Expect gusty winds and precipitation associated with the low to gradually push east/northeast and diminish with time tonight into Thursday morning. Precipitation totals so far have been very beneficial for the area with 24 hour totals ranging from just over an inch in the Billings area with 2 to around 3 inches reported over portions of central into south central Montana. Lighter amounts have been observed over southeast Montana, but still beneficial with amounts of a few tenths to over 1/2 inch. Winds have remained just shy of High Wind Warning over the area, but still impactful with gusts into the mid 50s at times. Snow, heavy at times, occurred over the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains, mainly above 9,000 ft. The Fisher Creek Snotel, located at 9,1000 ft has reported a snow depth of 8 inches this afternoon, but with warming temperatures this afternoon the snow accumulation has slowed thanks to compaction. Plan on an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow in the high country, mainly above 9,500 ft through the rest of the afternoon before ending. JW Friday through Wednesday... Pacific flow with near normal heights will persist Friday through Monday. The general consensus among ensembles leans toward this being a mostly dry period of weather, but there is some uncertainty here. There are a couple of shortwaves embedded within the flow. The first Friday and Friday night may bring some showers (20-30% chance) along with a brief push of modest cold advection. The second wave Sunday night and Monday may do the same. That said, there are a few ensemble members (the least probable of cluster analyses) that show one or both of these waves being sharper and a bit wetter. Temperatures should be more or less seasonable (highs in the 60s and 70s) for the third week of September. There is some confidence in a building ridge, and thus warmer and drier conditions, toward the middle of next week. We could see temps back near 80F. JKL/RMS && .AVIATION... Low pressure will move from northeast Montana to south central Canada during the TAF period. This storm system is producing impacts to aviation in much of the area north of the MT/WY border this afternoon, with strong winds gusting to 45-50 kt and clouds and rain and clouds producing MVFR conditions and clouds and snow causing mountain obscuration. For tonight, winds will decrease in south central MT but remain gusty in southeast MT with gusts to 35-40 kt there. LLWS is expected around and after 07z near KSHR and around and after 11z near KMLS. Sky and visibility conditions should improve in south central MT to VFR. In southeast MT, ceilings will be MVFR to IFR. Thursday will be breezy with west/northwest winds gusting to 25-40 kt, strongest in southeast MT. In southeast MT, conditions will be MVFR through about 19z, then VFR. There will be areas of mountain obscuration in the morning. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail on Thursday. RMS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 053/073 049/075 046/065 044/070 047/070 048/073 050/078 60/U 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U 01/U LVM 043/072 043/073 039/065 038/070 041/068 041/072 044/078 30/U 01/B 21/B 11/U 13/W 21/U 01/U HDN 051/074 046/077 044/067 042/071 043/070 045/073 045/079 80/B 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U 00/U MLS 055/072 049/076 046/064 044/068 045/069 046/070 047/076 71/N 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/U 00/U 4BQ 054/073 047/078 045/065 043/067 045/069 045/069 046/077 61/U 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 00/U BHK 051/070 045/078 043/065 041/067 042/068 042/069 044/075 52/W 00/U 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 00/U SHR 048/076 043/080 040/066 038/070 038/070 041/072 042/081 50/U 01/U 31/B 11/U 12/W 21/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Warning in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-68-138-141-170-172-173-228-235. Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONE 67. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings