989
FXUS62 KCAE 150650
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
250 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with gradually
increasing moisture into early next week with high pressure off
the mid Atlantic Coast. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and
evening convection possible through the middle of next week.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s
throughout much of the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The key message for today continues to be the heat this
afternoon.

Upper ridge continues to build over the region today
into tonight as an upper trough slides eastward. At the surface,
a front over the Mid-Atlantic slides south and through the
region this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures are
expected to rise to the mid to upper 90s, and some places could
see the warmest day of the year so far today. In addition,
moisture levels rise somewhat as dew points are expected to rise
into the upper 60s to around 70. This combination will likely
lead to heat index values around 100 for much of the forecast
area this afternoon. That said, some afternoon cloud cover is
expected to develop, which could limit just how warm we get
today. Nonetheless, it will likely be 5-10 degrees above average
for this time of year. Be sure to take plenty of breaks and
hydrate if you are spending time outdoors today, especially this
afternoon.

With the increase in moisture, front moving through from the
north, and a sea breeze boundary moving in from the east, there
is potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over
the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA this afternoon into evening.
The greatest chance for thunderstorms would be along and east of
the I-95 corridor. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A building upper ridge will begin moving across the area into
Sunday. Front stalls across the south by Sunday. Any isolated
afternoon rainfall potential will be confined to the southern
Midlands and CSRA during the afternoon hours, with the remainder
of the forecast area remaining on the dry side. Upper ridge
continues to build. There will be a slight increase in moisture
and clouds as winds turn more easterly. This should allow
slightly cooler temperatures in the afternoon, with highs in the
lower to middle 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridge pattern will remain across the eastern US through
the period. Much of the period will continue to be on the dry
side, with maybe isolated late afternoon convection possible
across the eastern cwa closer to the coastal plain each day.
Confidence in any rainfall though is very low through the
period. High temperatures will remain near to slightly above
normal in the low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR likely through the TAF period.

Clear skies continue through about 15z or 16z when a cumulus
field is expected to develop. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms could develop along a boundary in the 19z to 00z
timeframe, with highest chances for AGS/DNL and OGB. However,
confidence is too low that any terminal will see activity so
have left mention of it out of the TAF for now. Winds north of
the boundary are forecast to be from the northeast from 5-10 kts
through much of the afternoon while locations near the boundary
will likely be light and variable. After 22z or 23z, expect
winds everywhere to become east southeast, but remain light
around 5 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers
or thunderstorms are possible Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$