152
FXUS62 KCAE 181733
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
133 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday. Unsettled conditions are possible by
late in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from
the Atlantic. Well above normal temperatures are expected by
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure and upper level ridging remain in control of the
forecast area with some vertically limited cumulus developing.
CHS morning sounding along with forecast sounding show a
substantial subsidence inversion across the area which will keep
the cumulus development suppressed through the afternoon. With
sunset expect the cumulus to dissipate and some cirrus to
persist over the region tonight. With the scattered nature of
the clouds overnight expect good radiational cooling however
this will be somewhat offset by winds which will remain 5 to 10
mph overnight. High temperatures this afternoon remain on track
for the low 90s with overnight lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Benign weather expected to continue in the short term with high
pressure ridging into the area. While easterly flow may lead to a
bit of a moisture increase tomorrow, below normal PWAT values still
expected leading to continued dry weather. A lingering pressure
gradient will keep winds a bit breezy out of the east each day.
Otherwise, temperatures will be right around seasonal average with
highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main concern for the long term will be the heat as we are expected
to enter the hottest stretch of the year so far. NAEFS indicate that
by Saturday into Sunday with upper ridging maintaining over the
area, 850mb temperatures will climb to above the 90th percentile and
remain into early next week. Blended guidance generally favors high
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, although probabilities of
highs exceeding 100F are between 20 to 30 percent, so it is not out
of the question that one of the days Sun through Tues sees triple
digit temperatures. A bit of uncertainty as to the potential of
a moisture increase which may limit highs through cloudiness
and shower and storm coverage but regardless, potential for
moderate to major heat risk Sunday into early next week (more
info: wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk).

Moisture is expected to increase late this week into the weekend as
an inverted trough pushes towards the coast of SC/GA. The National
Hurricane Center indicated this system has a low chance (20%) of
tropical development but it will lead to a plume of moisture moving
into the southeastern US. Ensembles do indicate that the strongest
push of moisture should remain to the south of the area but with
increasing probabilities of PWATs greater than an inch and a half,
expect chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
mainly favoring the southeast through the weekend. By early next
week, high probability (>80%) of PWATs greater than an inch and a
half with scattered thunderstorms developing across the area, again
expected to be diurnally driven.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR Conditions expected through the period.

High pressure remains in control of the region with drier than
normal air across the area. Scattered cumulus have developed and
will continue to develop through the afternoon however with a
subsidence inversion and plenty of dry air aloft vertical
development will be limited. Cumulus will dissipate this
evening with some cirrus remaining over the region overnight.
Late Wednesday morning cumulus will once again begin developing
with the subsidence inversion again limiting development. Winds
will be easterly through the period with gusts around 17 knots
into this evening before diminishing to around 8 knots then once
again become gusty from 19/15z through the end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing potential for showers
and thunderstorms creating brief restrictions Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$