333
FXUS62 KCAE 241900
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures are expected to continue into midweek. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms should occur each afternoon and
evening, with better coverage likely Thursday. Increasing heat
impacts Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Max heat indices around 105F today.
-Scattered afternoon storms in eastern area. Marginal risk for
 severe weather with damaging wind gusts primary threat.

Surface boundary remains weak and diffuse as it moves into the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA with a few showers developing
between Sumter and Orangeburg. As the boundary move eastward
there it is accompanied by some wind gusts with the direction
veering to westerly and the temperatures quickly rising 4 to 6
degrees into the upper 90s at many locations. Although the
temperatures are quickly rising the dewpoints are also falling
with dewpoints in the western and central Midlands falling into
the low to mid 60s. This combination will continue to result in
heat index values mainly between 100 and 105 however a few
locations in the eastern Midlands may be slightly higher for a
brief time. Through the remainder of the afternoon and into the
early evening expect the boundary to approach the coast and
slow as it becomes more east to west oriented. Concern with any
convection which develops will be with dry air in the mid and
upper levels thunderstorms could contain strong and gusty winds.
Convection will diminish with sunset and with drier air over
the area expect gradually clearing skies with mostly clear
conditions by daybreak. High temperatures this afternoon will be
in the upper 90s with low tonight falling into the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Hot conditions to continue with max heat indices of 100-105.
-Widely scattered to scattered afternoon/early evening
thunderstorms, greatest coverage in the southeast Midlands.


The region will be located along the eastern periphery of an upper
level ridge on Tuesday. At the surface, a weak front will generally
stall just southeast of the area. Higher levels of moisture will
persist in closer to proximity to the stalled front (southeastern
Midlands) with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s and precipitable
water values around 1.75 inches. However, farther inland, the
airmass will be significantly drier with dewpoints bottoming out in
the lower to mid 60s and precipitable water values of 1.00-1.25". As
a result of the increased moisture and low level convergence, CAMs
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms focusing across
the eastern Midlands and perhaps lower CSRA during the afternoon and
early evening hours on Tuesday. Soundings show enough instability
and dry air in place aloft to support a damaging wind threat with
any storms that do form. Temperatures will be above normal once
again, but with more of a northeasterly/easterly low level flow,
expect conditions to be perhaps a couple of degrees cooler than
Monday with highs in the mid-upper 90s and heat index values of 100-
105.

The front will lift north of the area on Wednesday, setting up more
of a southerly low level flow. Diurnally driven isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across most areas.
Slightly rising heights and the southerly flow should result in
warmer high temperatures, with highs in the upper 90s in most areas.
Fortunately, dewpoints should mix out enough in the afternoon to
keep heat index values to 100-105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

KEY MESSAGES:
-Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday, some
possibly severe.
-Increasing heat impacts expected Friday through the weekend.

Models show an upper trough swinging through the area on Thursday,
and an associated cold front at the surface. This should provide
enough forcing to result in at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening, and perhaps be the day with
the greatest rain chances in the long term. Overall shear is not
that strong, but soundings show weaker capping, moderate instability
and more a pronounced inverted V, suggesting the potential for a few
strong/severe thunderstorms with primarily a wind threat.

Ensembles are in good agreement showing a strengthening upper ridge
aloft Friday through the weekend. Diurnally driven scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible each day, but knocked down the NBM
POPs a bit as the subsidence aloft looks to be fairly strong.
Temperatures will rise through the weekend beneath the building
ridge, and heat impacts will once again become an issue.

Ensembles show the ridge breaking down on Monday as an upper trough
passes to the north, potentially resulting in greater rain chances
and cooler temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Weak frontal boundary continues to move through the terminals
with a few showers currently just east of OGB. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms at any terminal remain too low to
mention however the highest potential remains at OGB. As the
boundary moves east of the area winds will veer to westerly with
some gusts to 15 mph through this evening. With sunset
convection will end and with drier air moving into the area and
a 20 to 25 knots LLJ over the area do not expect fog development
during the early morning and sunrise hours Tuesday morning.
Winds Tuesday morning will become easterly at 8 knots or less
with some cumulus developing from the late morning through the
end of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$