191
FXUS62 KCAE 160003
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
803 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will move through the area tonight, then stall out
off to the south of the forecast area on Sunday. Mainly expect
isolated afternoon and evening convection through the weekend.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal
temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
With a weak cold front slowly pushing through the forecast area
we will continue to see scattered thunderstorms. Outflow
boundaries colliding through the evening will continue to spark
additional development. Dry air aloft will contribute to DCAPE
values above 1000 J/kg. Weak shear and dry air aloft indicates
the potential for pulse-type thunderstorms to produce damaging
downburst winds but the threat is isolated. Convective activity
will wane through the evening hours. Overnight lows remain
mild, generally in the low 70s. Some patchy fog will be possible
tonight in areas that received heavy rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A stalled frontal boundary should be along a line from the lower
CSRA through the Southeastern Midlands on Sunday. This boundary
combined with an onshore flow should be the focus for diurnal
convection on Sunday. The chances of precipitation will be in
the 20 to 30 percent range primarily near the boundary. It will
remain slightly warmer than normal with highs in the lower to
mid 90s. Heat indices should approach 100F in some areas.

High pressure aloft builds over the Carolinas Monday and expands
northward into the Mid Atlantic States and New England on Tuesday.
The H5 high pressure system position and the subsidence underneath
will shunt the deepest moisture to the west of the region and result
in mainly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain slightly above
normal for mid June.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much above normal H5 heights are very likely to be centered over
New England and the Mid Atlantic States from the middle of next
week into next weekend. The orientation of these exceptionally
high H5 heights shifts from northeast to southwest to east to
west as the week progresses. This could allow an inverted upper
trough to move onshore around Thursday and enhance the sea
breeze front. A chance of convection should be possible,
especially near the sea breeze front.

The H5 high center should shift southward into the Carolinas by
next weekend which would decrease the chance of diurnal
convection and lead to a greater potential of excessive heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/..

A diffuse frontal boundary will remain near the area through
Sunday. This front may be a focus for widely scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms.

Convection this evening is diminishing across the southern
Midlands and CSRA. These storms may linger near AGS and DNL
through 01z-02z so MVFR visibility and ceilings can be expected
at those sites from 00z-01z. Otherwise, the cumulus clouds will
scatter out and VFR expected at all terminals for most of the
night with scattered to broken mid level clouds mainly before
04z. Winds will be light and variable overnight. Although
guidance is not indicating fog late tonight, heavy rain was
reported at OGB this afternoon and showers are near AGS at 00z.
So, put in a tempo period of MVFR at those sites with Mos
indicating small dew point depressions toward morning. Scattered
high based cumulus will develop by late Sunday. An upper level
ridge will be building over the area Sunday which suggests a
stronger mid level cap than today. However, with the diffuse
boundary near the area to provide some low level convergence,
and the convective models suggesting widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon, can`t rule out brief
restrictions at terminals due to diurnally driven convection,
although confidence too low at this time.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$