137
FXUS62 KCAE 171403
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1003 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure area will continue to weaken today as it slowly
moves across the region. A few lingering showers are expected
through the day but amounts will be light. Showers and
seasonable temperatures expected through midweek. Drier weather
expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Light showers linger over the region today and tonight.

10 AM Update: With the exception of very isolated light showers
or drizzle, the area is generally dry at this hour. Satellite
imagery indicates there is a sharp cutoff of the cloud cover.
The dividing line is generally along a line from Saluda to
Columbia to Sumter. Areas to the south and west of this line are
clear, while those north and east of this line are under clouds.
The main forecast challenge for today remains to be the
temperatures. A sharp temperature gradient is likely and where
this gradient ends up depends on exactly where the edge of the
cloud deck sets up. Haven`t made any temperature changes from
the early morning forecast just yet, as still expecting the
temperature gradient to line up somewhere near the Columbia
area.

Early-morning discussion: Surface low pressure will continue to
weaken as it slowly drifts westward through the day. Lingering
moisture and the upper level low will support scattered shower
development later this morning and afternoon. The highest rain
chances will be in the northern and western Midlands closer to
the low. Stratus will remain over the area this morning but
there will be some clearing through the day, especially in the
CSRA and southern Midlands where WV imagery shows dry air
wrapping around the backside of the system. The cloud cover and
light showers will keep temperatures down today with highs in
the mid to upper 70s in the northern half of the CWA and in the
low to mid 80s south where there will be more clearing.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Lingering showers focused in the north Midlands and Piedmont

The remnants of the upper low that moved through the forecast
area will still be slowly rotating and moving back to the north
of the cwa on Wednesday. Winds aloft on the backside of this low
will be turning more westerly, bringing a downslope component,
more sunshine, and warmer temperatures (low to mid 80s) by the
afternoon. There may still be enough weak instability by the
afternoon also to bring a few isolated showers/storms to the
cwa, with the highest pops generally across the northern
counties. Drying occurs then Wednesday night as any shower
activity dissipates. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Trending drier for the weekend.

Upper troughing will continue into the weekend, while at the
surface, high pressure will build back southward east of the
Appalachians once again. This will generally bring a return of
drier conditions through next weekend. With plenty of sunshine,
highs each afternoon should rise into the low to middle 80s.
Overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR conditions continue at CAE and CUB while OGB, AGS, and DNL
are VFR.

As a surface low continues to slowly move through region this
morning light rain will impact CAE and CUB reducing
visibilities. Vis expected to improve later in the morning as
the deepest moisture moves out of the area. Expect MVFR cigs at
all terminals through much of the day as low clouds wrap around
the low. There may be a period of IFR ceilings at OGB but
confidence is highest at CAE and CUB. Ceilings should show
improvement after 15Z-18Z. VFR conditions should be first to
return at AGS and DNL where drier air is wrapping around the
system. VFR conditions expected to return to all sites by 00Z
Wednesday. Winds will turn from out of the NW to W this morning
becoming light and variable by late afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A lack of forcing will limit rain
chances over the region this week. Lingering low-level moisture
may support early morning restrictions through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$