Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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243 FXUS62 KCAE 150750 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 350 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front moves in from the north today, then drops south of the area on Sunday. Mainly expect isolated afternoon and evening convection through the weekend. High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The key message for today continues to be the heat this afternoon. Upper ridge continues to build over the region today into tonight as an upper trough slides eastward. At the surface, a front over the Mid-Atlantic slides south and through the region this afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to rise to the mid to upper 90s, and some places could see the warmest day of the year so far today. In addition, moisture levels rise somewhat as dew points are expected to rise into the upper 60s to around 70. This combination will likely lead to heat index values around 100 for much of the forecast area this afternoon. That said, some afternoon cloud cover is expected to develop, which could limit just how warm we get today. Nonetheless, it will likely be 5-10 degrees above average for this time of year. Be sure to take plenty of breaks and hydrate if you are spending time outdoors today, especially this afternoon. With the increase in moisture, front moving through from the north, and a sea breeze boundary moving in from the east, there is potential for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the eastern Midlands and lower CSRA this afternoon into evening. The greatest chance for thunderstorms would be along and east of the I-95 corridor. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday and Sunday Night: Upper level ridging will be centered over the region on Sunday while at the surface a cold front will eventually stall out south of the area. Lingering moisture and weak to moderate instability could support isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the central Midlands south through the CSRA according to the latest high resolution mesoscale models. An onshore flow and diurnal cloud cover should result in high temperatures cooler than Saturday. It appears that the deterministic NBM is on the low end of the ensemble spread, so raised forecast temperatures to show highs generally in the lower to mid 90s. Heat index values could approach 100F. Monday and Monday Night: Upper level ridging will persist over the region, however as surface high pressure extends across the area from off the New England coast, the deeper moisture will shift west of the area. This should result in rain-free conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal, but overall similar to Sunday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridging will remain across the eastern US into midweek, with ensembles then showing the ridge lifting northward and taking on a more west-east orientation into late week. This could allow an inverted upper trough to retrograde south of the region and bring in slightly more moisture late week. While the overall patter still appears to be dry, there is the possibility of some sea breeze/diurnal convection across eastern areas Thursday and again on Friday. Temperatures will remain just above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR likely through the TAF period. Clear skies continue through about 15z or 16z when a cumulus field is expected to develop. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop along a boundary in the 19z to 00z timeframe, with highest chances for AGS/DNL and OGB. However, confidence is too low that any terminal will see activity so have left mention of it out of the TAF for now. Winds north of the boundary are forecast to be from the northeast from 5-10 kts through much of the afternoon while locations near the boundary will likely be light and variable. After 22z or 23z, expect winds everywhere to become east southeast, but remain light around 5 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions although isolated to scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms are possible Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$