Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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285 FXUS62 KCAE 130015 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 815 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to build over the area from the north, allowing dry conditions to persist through Friday. Moisture will begin increasing slightly by Sunday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast into next week. Hot temperatures are expected throughout much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Forecast soundings indicating dry air continues in the mid and low levels across the area. There was a break in cloudiness early this evening, especially across the Midlands, but as a shortwave pivots through Georgia, expect clouds to increase over the next several hours. With this increased cloudiness, expect temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last night, with lows generally in the mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Upper pattern will consist of an upper trough moving north of the region, then deepening as it moves towards the Atlantic coastline. Further west, an area of high pressure situated across the southern plains and northern Mexico will begin to push eastward. In general, our upper pattern will see our winds turning from westerly early in the period, to more northwesterly. At the surface, a stalled surface front remains well south of the region, while another cold front should begin approaching from the north late Friday night. Dry conditions will continue each day though, with maybe some sea-breeze showers possible just east of the cwa each day. Temperatures Thursday will reach to around 90, then expected to rise into the middle 90s for Friday as the upper ridge off to the west begins building eastward. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For Saturday a diffuse cold front should be moving towards the cwa through the day. Ahead of this front, the upper ridge that has been off to our west will be strengthening into the cwa. The strength of this ridge should be enough to keep conditions ahead of the weak front dry but hot. The front should stall out somewhere across the southern cwa, or just south of that into Sunday. Rainfall chances into next week will depend on the strength of the developing capping inversion each afternoon. Best day for activity appears to be Sunday before the mid-level cap begins to strengthen into next week. Higher concerns will exist for afternoon high temperatures, where readings in the mid to upper 90s, and possible even at 100. Airmass may remain dry enough to keep afternoon heat index values below any advisory criteria. Even so, continue to urge caution for those outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions should persist through the 24 hours TAF period. SCT- BKN cumulus AOA 4kft MSL should diminish this evening, with SCT-BKN mid and high level clouds continuing into Thursday. These thicker clouds tonight should prevent the development of low stratus and fog. SFC winds light and variable to calm overnight, increasing out of the northeast on Thursday at 5-10 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are expected through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and Monday but current confidence on restrictions is low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$