200
FXUS61 KCAR 150819
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
419 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in this weekend then shift south of
the area on Monday. The area will remain under the influence of
high pressure through later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold front will continue to sag south and off the Downeast coast
early today. Some lingering showers can be expected this
morning for the coast and downeast Maine until the front finally
moves through later this morning.

Otherwise, high pressure builds east from the Great lakes
region today. The trend will be for decreasing clouds and
increasing sunshine today. A northerly breeze will advect in
much drier and cooler air. Afternoon highs across the north
will range from the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s for the
Bangor region and downeast areas.

Have issued a Beach Hazard Statement for the Hancock County coast in
coordination with neighboring office and U.S. Coast Guard. Have
decided not to issue for Washington county coast as more in the way
of clouds are expected to linger longer there with scattered
showers lingering through mid day.

High pressure continues to build east toward the region overnight.
Expect a mainly clear and cool night. Lows tonight will range from
the mid 30s to near 40 degrees across the north and low to mid 40s
for Bangor and Downeast. Some patchy frost is possible late tonight
across the North Maine Woods along with patchy river valley fog
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
By Sunday morning sfc high will be in the vicinity of the Hudson
Valley and building off of the New England coast in the afternoon.
Winds will begin to back around to the southwest late in the
afternoon with light sea breeze developing along the coast. Max
temps will be in the low to middle 70s over inland area and
sunny skies with coastal zones in the low-mid 60s.

Sunday night will see a warm front and ridge runner approach late.
Clouds will be on the increase from the southwest with all but nern
zones mostly cloudy by daybreak. Given cloud cover and southerly
flow temps will only be able to drop into the lwr 50s, though
some locations acrs the north might be able to dip into the 40s.
By 12z Monday isolated showers may be entering into the North
Woods.

Monday looks to be cooler than currently advertised with cloud cover
and showers moving thru CWA. By 00z Tuesday sfc warm front looks to
be over the Green and White Mountains of New England. Showers
developing ahead of the front and with aforementioned s/wv moving
thru the area looks to only bring a few hundredths of an inch,
mainly over swrn areas. Maxes likely to be warmest over the
northeast in the middle 70s where Central Highlands down into the
Bangor region only tapping into the lower 70s. Coast and the outer
islands may well stay in the 50s to around 60 with onshore flow.

Showers will be moving offshore late Monday night with upper level
ridge beginning to exert itself into the area from the southwest. By
12z Tuesday deterministic guidance and their respective ensembles
means have 595mb high over the mid-Atlantic with ridge nosing into
New Brunswick. H5 heights on the order of 2 SD above normal looks to
be present acrs the CWA early Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence continues to be very high with our upcoming heat wave. In
fact exceedance probabilities are gradually increasing for highs
over 90F on Tuesday afternoon, mainly north of Baxter SP. Ensemble
means are showing H5 heights over the area ranging from 2.5-3 SD
above normal during the afternoon on Tuesday.

Little relief from the heat is expected on Tuesday night with lows
north of Bangor remaining in the U60s to near 70. Downeast coast
will support lows in the 50s thanks to cold ocean temperatures.

Dewpoints will be on the increase Wednesday afternoon as the
majority of the area will top out around 70, outside of the coast
and outer islands. Have bumped temps by a degree or two with nearly
600dm heights over the NJ coast. Being on the northern periphery of
this anomalous H5 ridge may allow a s/wv to track across and bring
showers to the region in the afternoon. For the time being have gone
with near record highs north of interior Downeast on Wednesday
afternoon (see climate section below). Ensembles are showing H8
temps of 21C (CMC), 20C (EC) and 19C (GFS). A max value of 22.1C
occurred on on the 00z sounding out of CAR on 8/1/95 with a high of
93 degrees that day, so records are not out of the realm of
possibility. Any showers that fall across the north will likely
increase dewpoints in the afternoon to make it feel like over 100
degrees. Maximum heat indices on Wednesday look to be around
and possibly over 100F north of interior Downeast. Heat Advisory
looks like it will be needed without a doubt and will need to
look a little more closely at a potential Excessive Heat Watch
if models continue to trend warmer.

For Wednesday night temps will only drop into the lower 70s acrs the
north and west with m/u 60s over interior Downeast. On Thursday
guidance continues to differ on timing of the cold front with GFS/EC
bringing it through in the afternoon, though not before nrn areas
rise once again toward 90F. Central areas may be able to reach into
the middle 90s before clouds and showers have an impact. Given that
the cold front may come through during the hottest part of the day
thunderstorms will definitely be a threat. If the cold front can
move through in the afternoon, and uncertainty is very high on this
idea, then storms will no doubt be strong as they break the
heatwave. Temps on Friday and into the weekend will be around
80F.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected all terminals through tonight.
The exception will be KBHB vicinity which may see brief MVFR
conditions in showers this morning. Also, early morning patchy
fog may affect KPQI early Sunday. N wind 10 to 15 kt today, then
5 to 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday-Wednesday...VFR. WNW 5-10 kts Sunday, becoming SW 5-10kts
into Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA levels into the
early part of the week. Seas will barely approach 5 ft over the
outer waters early Tuesday morning before diminishing through
the middle of next week. Patchy fog may reduce visibilities over
the water at times early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 19th Forecast HighsRecords:

Caribou (96)96 in 2020
Bangor (92)95 in 1995
Millinocket (95)95 in 2020
Houlton (93)95 in 2020
Frenchville (96)93 in 2020

June 20th Forecast Mins Max Min Records:

Caribou (74)68 in 1970
Bangor (68)72 in 1931
Millinocket (71)69 in 1923
Houlton (70)67 in 1976
Frenchville (71) 65 in 2016

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for MEZ029.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster
Climate...Buster