475
FXUS61 KCAR 230333
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1133 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will lift north as a warm front tonight into Sunday as
low pressure approaches. Low pressure will cross the area
Sunday night into Monday followed by high pressure on Tuesday. A
cold front will approach on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11:30 PM Update...Clouds are increasing and the air remains mild
tonight. A bit of light rain is seen on radar SW of here.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track with no significant changes
needed this hour.

previous discussion
A frontal boundary has been stationary to the south of the area
this afternoon. Clouds are overhead near Bangor and Downeast,
with a few light showers at the coast. A low pressure system
tracking northward into the Great Lakes will cause the front to
lift northward as a warm front. This will spread showers to
transition to a steady rain as the night goes on. Most of the
rain tonight will fall from the Central Highlands southward.
Northern Aroostook County will likely remain dry until after
daybreak. Warm air overrunning the front will cause a
temperature inversion late tonight into Sunday morning. This
will allow for patchy fog to develop from the Central Highlands
southward. Areas of fog are possible near the coast. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s area-wide.

The aforementioned low will move closer to the area on Monday,
brining the front closer. Models show PWAT values exceeding the
90th percentile of climatology for Northern and Eastern Maine.
In addition, a deep, warm cloud layer will be present. These
factors are favorable for heavy rainfall. Given the frontal
location and the location of the jet streak, expecting the
heaviest rain in the North. Antecedent conditions are pretty
dry, so not expecting widespread flooding. However, some poor
drainage flooding will be possible in heavier downpours.

High temperatures on Sunday will remain in the 60s across the
area as the region will not be in the warm sector. This will
limit CAPE, so not expecting strong or severe thunderstorms.
However, a few rumbles of thunder are expected on Sunday.Update...
Frontal boundary extends from New York State eastward across
southern New England. The boundary will gradually lift north
overnight into Sunday afternoon as an area of low pressure
tracks east along the front. Expect rain to spread into western
and downeast areas after midnight while it remains mainly dry
through daybreak across the far north.

Slowed the timing of the rain into the Bangor region and
Downeast by a few hours based on latest trends and guidance.
Otherwise, just minor adjustments to hourly temps/dew points,
based on latest observed conditions.

See updated near term aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sfc warm front will likely be across nrn zones on Sunday evening
with lopres still back to the west. Locally heavy rainfall likely to
still be ongoing at this time over the north as area remains in RRQ
of upr jet streak as it heads into the Maritimes overnight. Still
some discrepancies on movement of wave along boundary with EC and
CMC much quicker moving it thru as GFS hangs it back further to the
west. Latest GFS looks to be much more amplified with other guidance
keeping upr level pattern somewhat more progressive. 12z NAM is
quickest to drive front through with other guidance hanging the
front back until early Monday morning when secondary wave pulls it
off of the coast.

Although fropa will have occurred Monday morning H5 trof will still
be lingering over CWA and with diurnal htg, expect that there likely
will be storms over the region in the afternoon. Given showers and
clouds, high temps will top out in the lwr 70s.

For Tuesday have cleared things out in the morning as most of
the H5 trof should be east into NB with high pressure building
in. Temps will rise back into the 80s as skies clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will dominate the weather through Tuesday night
before the next system approaches from the west. Pre-frontal
trof may move through Wednesday afternoon, bringing another
round of storms to the region. Cold front looks to swing through
Wednesday night with a return to near normal temperatures into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL:
VFR through most of tonight. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR
around daybreak Sunday with VCSH and low clouds. IFR or lower
Sunday afternoon with +RA and VCTS. Light S winds tonight. S-SE
winds 5-15 kts on Sunday.

KBGR/KBHB:
VFR/MVFR early, then IFR/LIFR developing mainly after 05z with
-SHRA and patchy fog. IFR or lower on Sunday with RA and patchy
fog. Light and variable winds tonight, becoming S-SE 5-15 kts
on Sunday.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday night-Monday...IFR in fog and locally heavy rain over
terminals. Wind S 5-10kts southern terminals, N 5-10kts northern
terminals, becoming N 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday night...Improving to VFR. N 5-10kts
becoming W 5-10kts Tuesday.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. S 5-15kts becoming NW 5-15kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...Improving to VFR with lingering showers over southern
terminals. NW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through Sunday morning. Visibility on the waters will be
reduced below 2 NM with fog and rain. Seas build to around SCA
criteria by late Sunday afternoon and continue building after
sunset. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting late
Sunday afternoon.


SHORT TERM: Seas will remain above 5ft through Tuesday morning,
especially over the outer waters. Winds will be marginal Sunday
night but should remain below 25kts under stable layer. Next
chance for headlines may be on Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Clark/MCB
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Clark/Buster
Marine...TWD/Clark/Buster