758
FXUS61 KCAR 210735
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
335 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build down from Eastern Canada this weekend
while a storm off the coast backs away further out to sea. High
pressure will crest over the area Monday then retreat into the
Northern Maritimes Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build down from Eastern Canada
today bringing a cool day with a northeasterly breeze across the
area. Some patchy low clouds backing in from the Maritimes may
be across parts of the north early this morning. Otherwise, the
north turn our mostly sunny by midday with some high clouds.
Downeast will begin mostly cloudy but will turn sunnier as high
pressure continues to build down and the offshore low back away
out to sea. Today will be a bit cooler than recent days with
highs in the upper 60s across the area.

High pressure continuing to build down from the north will bring
a mostly clear sky over the north tonight while southern areas
will have partial cloudiness with some high clouds remaining.
The clearer and calmer conditions across the north will allow
temperatures to cool into the low 40s, to perhaps the upper 30s
in some of the coldest northwestern valleys. Downeast will have
lows in the upper 40s to near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Outside of some patchy SC cldnss at tms msly Late Ngt Sun into
Mon Morn, Sun and Mon look to be fair and cooler, even a little
below seasonal norms as sfc Can high pres ridges swrd with some
remnant Atlc/Gulf of St Lawrence llvl moisture trapped below
the subsidence invsn.

Mon Ngt at this tm does not look as cool as Sun Ngt as the llvl
core of the air mass moderates and abv blyr winds begin to
return from the S. Tue also looks fair with seasonal temps and
intervals of SC cldnss as sfc high pres holds ovr or just E of
the FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Blended long range models conts to bring increasing cldnss
later Tue Ngt into Wed as llvl winds increase from the S and SE
to what appears to be the beginning of the breakdown of the Ern
Can-Nrn New Eng blocking pattern. Blended long range guidance
conts holding off on any PoPs abv slgt chc lvl until later Wed
Ngt, with PoPs now well in the chc range for spcly Thu into Thu
Eve as a low pres sys from the Midwest apchs and then perhaps
redevelops off the SE New Eng coast as per the latest 00z
dtmnstc CanGem and ECMWF model solutions, potentially bringing
the first sig rnfl for our Rgn in a couple of weeks. With
agreement not unanimous among the long range models, we are
still not going abv hi chc PoPs with this event this fcst update
and keeping the character of precip as shwrs. For example, the
00z GFS model is more progressive and less phased with Nrn
stream upper jet energy digging swrd into the Nrn Mid Atlc
states giving comparatively little rnfl to the FA mid to late
next week. We keep lingering but dmnshg shwr PoPs ovr the Rgn
into Fri with the exit of this system, with low confidence of
actual shwr end tm for now. Temps during long range will remain
msly near seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Some patchy low clouds may result in MVFR ceilings
early this morning across northern sites. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected over the north today into tonight. VFR
conditions are expected over southern sites today and tonight.
Winds light NE today and tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun - Mon Morn...all TAF sites msly VFR
with ocnl MVFR - low VFR clgs Late Ngt into Morn. Lgt to ENE to
NE winds becmg lgt and vrbl late Sun Ngt into Mon Morn.

Mon Aftn - Tue Eve...all TAF sites low VFR clgs to unlmtd VFR
with Lgt and vrbl winds becmg lgt S on Tue.

Late Tue Ngt - Wed...all TAF sites MVFR clgs with lgt S winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue today and tonight for offshore
waters for winds gusting up to 25 kt. Seas up to 6 ft today and
5 ft tonight. Vsby will be good today and tonight with drier
cooler air moving in from the northeast.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA ENE wind gusts and accompanying seas
xpcted to cont until midday Sun as the sfc low pres ovr the
open Atlc E of Cape Cod conts to slowly drift SSE. By later Sun
into Sun Ngt, the pres grad ovr the outer waters should weaken
enough as the low conts to move away for winds and seas to
subside below SCA thresholds and this should cont Mon thru Wed.
Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts with
wvs having two components; a short fetch pd of 3 - 5 sec and an
open swell pd of 10 - 12 sec.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/VJN