222
FXUS61 KCAR 161253
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
853 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today then slide south of
the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure will remain to our
south on Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
8:53AM Update...Minor tweaks to the forecast with temperatures
on the diurnal curve after a cool morning this morning. No major
changes with mainly full sunshine filled skies for this Fathers
Day! W-NW winds will be on the lighter side today generally less
than 15mph.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure cresting over the area today will bring bright
sunshine, light winds, and seasonably warm temperatures with
inland highs cresting in the mid 70s across the area. A couple
isolated cumulus clouds over the north or some thin high clouds
across the west may stray into the sky this afternoon.

Tonight will begin clear as high pressure remains over the area.
Clouds will increase late tonight as a warm front pushes into
the region from the west. Lows tonight will not be as cold as
last night with temps bottoming out in the low 50s over the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Remnant MCS will bring cloud debris over CWA Monday morning into the
afternoon with perhaps some showers accompanying what remains of the
s/wv thru. At this point not expecting more than lochc acrs the
north with little in the way of measurable pcpn expected on Monday.
Winds will back around to the south as high pressure builds south of
Nova Scotia, drawing in more humid air. Have continued to lwr high
temps on Monday with mostly cloudy skies expected, keeping temps
confined into the lwr 70s across the area with exception of the
immediate coast and outer islands where they will struggle to climb
out of the 60s.

Showers likely to be exiting into New Brunswick on Monday evening
with a warm front lifting through overnight. Min temps likely to be
around 06z acrs the west before steadying and slowly rising from
there as dwpts climb into the 60s after daybreak.

Warm advection showers will start off the morning over the far
northwest on nrn periphery of 594dm ridge along the eastern
seaboard. Best instability will be over the St. John Valley in the
afternoon as any area south of there will be too capped under rising
heights. Have added in a slgt chc for thunder in this area drg the
afternoon hours. NBM trends are consistently showing temps around
90F to the north of a Newport (just west of Bangor) to Mars Hill
line with southwest flow bringing hottest temps into the Central
Highlands and northern Piscataquis County for Tuesday.

H5 ridge continues to build on Tuesday night with 597dm high center
over srn New England with heights of up to 594 acrs nrn sxns of the
state. Ridging should build up enough to keep any ridge riders to
the north of CWA though latest 00z guidance is making for less
confidence regarding this scenario. Either way the dwpts will surge
to around 70F during the overnight with min temps Tuesday night
just barely dropping to 70 degrees acrs the north, mid 60s over
central areas and u50s along the Downeast coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500mb heights will reach their maximum values over the area
Wednesday afternoon between 594 and 597dm, which is about 3 SD above
normal. Given the proximity soundings showing a temp of around 35C
to 36 at CAR at 2km and mixing that down would give a high of 96-97
on Wednesday. Likewise at MLT mixing down a temp of 36C would give
them 97 or 98 and BGR ranging from 36-38 would give them a temp of
98 to 100 for a high temp. Unfortunately this does not take into
account what flow there is off of Penobscot Bay and have kept with a
forecast high of between 95 and 96. Needless to say it is going to
be hot and one or two degree difference here or there will not mean
a hill of beanhole beans during this heatwave! Dewpoints in the lwr
70s acrs the entire region, with the exception of the immediate
coast, will likely bring heat indices (i.e. feels like temperatures
over 100 degrees and in some cases around 105 degrees). While still
too early to issue an Excessive Heat Watch for Wednesday this looks
likely to be issued within the next day or two.

Nighttime lows on Wednesday night will barely drop into the low-
middle 70s and this has remained very consistent among all guidance
and ensembles. Caribou will likely break our record max minimum
temperature of 71 degrees set back on July 2, 2014 by a good 4-5
degrees if the current forecast holds. This will make the prolonged
heatwave even worse for those most vulnerable to extreme heat.
Remember to drink plenty of water, limit outdoor activities from
late morning through late afternoon/early evening hours, stay in air
conditioned spaces, and never leave children or pets unattended in
vehicles.

A cold front will be approaching on Thursday morning with current
indications being that it will move through in the afternoon. Expect
that temps will rebound into the 90s across the north before the
front comes through while southern inland areas once again hit into
the middle 90s and heat indices rising once again toward the 105
degree mark. As the front moves through showers and thunderstorms
are likely and with cooler air filtering in temps will drop into the
60s across the north while remaining in the 70s acrs the south.

Friday will be cooler than previous days by 10-12 degrees but will
still be about 10 degrees above normal. Zonal flow will remain over
the region through the weekend with temps remaining above normal,
but not obnoxiously so.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the region today
into tonight. Winds will be W around 5 kt today and SW less than
5 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Monday-Wednesday night...VFR. MVFR/IFR in patchy fog Tuesday and
Wednesday morning. WSW 5-10kts through Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR in showers and thunderstorms. WNW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light today and tonight with seas over
the offshore waters around 4 ft today and 3 ft tonight. Humid
air will begin to push across the waters late tonight possibly
resulting in some patchy fog or mist.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
through Thursday. Humid air remaining over the waters likely to
bring reduced visibilities to the water each morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (97)96 in 2020
Bangor (95)95 in 1995
Millinocket (97)95 in 2020
Houlton (97)95 in 2020
Frenchville (96)93 in 2020


June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (76)68 in 1970
Bangor (72)72 in 1931
Millinocket (74)69 in 1923
Houlton (73)67 in 1976
Frenchville (73) 65 in 2016

June 20th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (91)93 in 2020
Bangor (96)95 in 2020
Millinocket (95)96 in 2020
Houlton (93)94 in 2020
Frenchville (89)88 in 2016

All-time Record Highs:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (97 June 19)96 in June 2020
Bangor (96 June 20)104 in August 1935
Millinocket(97 June 19) 101 in June 1907
Houlton (97 June 19)99 August 1975
Frenchville(97 June 19)94 in July 2018

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (76 June 20)71 in July 2018
Bangor (72 June 20)77 in August 1949
Millinocket(74 June 20)80 in July 1912
Houlton (73 June 20)72 in August 2009
Frenchville(73 June 20)71 in July 2018

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Sinko
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...Bloomer/Sinko/Buster
Marine...Bloomer/Sinko/Buster
Climate...