818
FXUS61 KCAR 251109
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
709 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns today, followed by a warm front lifting
north through the area tonight. A cold front will cross the
region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure should
return Friday into Saturday. A cold front may approach later
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
709 AM Update: Current radar shows that showers Downeast have
nearly all left the forecast area, and will continue to push
eastward this morning. Current satellite data indicates that
though river valley fog persists for the time being, the rising
sun is already eroding some of the shallower fog areas. Fog will
continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure continues to build into the area this morning,
clearing skies from northwest to southeast. Scattered rain
showers continue across the Downeast region early this morning,
but will gradually shift eastward and exit the region as the
parent low pressure continues to drift away into the Canadian
Maritimes. Areas of dense fog have developed this morning across
the north, particularly in river valleys where winds are the
most calm. As the sun rises this morning, fog will be quick to
dissipate, followed by sunny and warm weather through the day
today as highs approach the low to mid 80s through most of the
forecast area today.

For tonight, a warm front will lift northwards through the area,
shifting winds southwards and increasing cloud cover over the
area. This will keep low temperatures warm through the CWA, with
lows only falling into the lower 60s. Rain showers may begin to
move into the area from the west late tonight ahead of the next
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday...
Cold front and subtle upper level shortwave trough approach Northern
Maine from the west. This will bring some showers (35-65
percent chance north of Millinocket) and perhaps a storm to
Northern Maine during the day Wednesday. Not concerned about any
strong storms. Likely dry Downeast. Temperatures will be warm
ahead of the front, with highs in the low to mid 80s. With
dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, it`ll be a bit muggy. Breezy
from the W/SW.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...
Cold front moves through the area from north to south late
Wednesday afternoon into the evening, then stalls/falls apart
Downeast late evening. Meanwhile, a potent upper trough with
good jet support approaches from the west, and we will likely
see a surface low pressure develop and ride NE along the front
through our area late Wednesday night into early Thursday.
Expect a shot of moderate to heavy rain along and especially
just north of wherever this low tracks, along with a few
embedded storms. There is some uncertainty still on the track of
the heaviest rain, but most likely location is somewhere over
central or south-central portions of Eastern Maine. This looks
like roughly a 6 hour shot of heavier rain late Wednesday night
to early Thursday day, which could exceed an inch in the
heaviest areas. Not expecting any more than localized minor
nuisance flooding. Drying out from west to east by late Thursday
morning, with a chance of showers and perhaps an isolated storm
in the afternoon. Temperatures a bit below average with highs
in the vicinity of 70 Thursday.

Thursday Night...
Generally dry Thursday night, though can`t rule out a few lingering
showers in the evening. Upper trough passes through in the
evening with increasing subsidence later in the night along with
high pressure beginning to build in from the west. Fairly cool
with lows in the mid to upper 40s north and low to mid 50s
Downeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active weather pattern with progressive westerly flow continues into
the extended period. High pressure builds in for Friday, with
abundant sunshine, highs in the low to mid 70s, and low
humidity. However, the high pressure quickly moves east Friday
night and Saturday as the next potent upper level trough with
good upper jet support approaches from the west. Some timing
uncertainty with the upper trough and associated cold front.
Most models/ensembles hold off the best rain chances until
Saturday night or Sunday. If the cold front moves through late
Sunday, Sunday could be a prolific thunderstorm day, but if the
cold front moves through early Sunday, the storm threat would be
minimized since it wouldn`t correspond to maximum daytime
heating. Too early to tell. Fairly warm, muggy airmass ahead of
the weekend cold front, but nothing out of the ordinary.
Tentatively looking for the upper trough to kick off to the east
Monday, but some models pinch off and upper level low over our
area which would keep the weather unsettled for longer if this
were to occur. Likely cooling down for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Northern terminals to remain largely VFR through the
day today into the night tonight. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR vis
at Aroostook terminals, specifically KCAR and KPQI will quickly
clear by around 12z - 13z. Calm winds overnight to increase to
around 5 kts out of the W today, then S around 5 kts tonight.
LLWS possible late tonight.

Downeast terminals will gradually improve to VFR as MVFR deck
continues to shift eastward along with scattered rain showers.
Fog not as likely at these terminals with light N winds
persisting through the early morning hours. N winds continue
today around 5 to 10 kts, becoming S tonight. LLWS possible
late tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with a small chance of MVFR
ceilings at times over Northern Maine. S/SW winds 10-15 kts
with gusts to 25 kts.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR developing in the evening, with
IFR/LIFR likely after midnight. Rain developing, with a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Variable wind 5 kts.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early in rain, becoming mostly VFR by midday.
NW wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR. W/NW wind 5-10 kts,
becoming light Friday night.

Saturday...VFR, with a chance of MVFR late. S wind 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas on the coastal waters will likely remain around
5 to 6 ft early this morning, gradually falling to 4 to 5 ft by
later this afternoon. As such, the small craft advisory
continues until 2 PM this afternoon. Wind gusts will mostly
remain below 20 kts, though a couple gusts between 20 and 25 kts
are possible on the coastal waters. Intracoastal waters should
remain below 4 ft with gusts below 20 kts this afternoon. All
marine zones should sit below SCA criteria through the night
tonight.


SHORT TERM: Small craft conditions likely Wednesday through
Thursday, most likely due to seas around 5 ft, but also possibly
due to a south wind. Another decent shot at small craft winds
and seas Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...AStrauser/Foisy
Marine...AStrauser/Foisy